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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Wenger walks away from Mustafi deal

By 1970's Gooner

Dick Law has been to Spain and now he is back empty handed.

Gulliem Balague, the Spanish journalist, has reported that Valencia are not really that cash strapped as they will unload other players to meet the FFP rules.

This makes sense as one would have expected that Valencia would agree a reasonable fee for Mustafi if they really wanted to sell and get their roster sorted before the commencement of La Liga. Yet they do the opposite.

They raise the price even further. They sense that Wenger is desperate, really desperate. And they aim to take advantage.

In the meantime West Brom hack up the price for their average ex man Utd central defender Evans to 25m!!!

I am laughing out loud as I write this. I really am. For Wenger's tactics for negotiating transfers have come back to haunt him. CLUBS DO NOT NEED TO SELL THEIR PLAYERS.

And if they want to they will do it only for crazy money.

And we all know that Wenger, under no pressure from the owners to win anything (apart from finishing in the top 4), will walk away.

And believe me he WILL WALK AWAY.

There is another real reason he will walk away.

The performances of Rob Holding have been outstanding especially next to a more experienced Koscienly. So Wenger will ask himself. Is a new addition at 30m a better value for money when compared to Holding's capabilities?

Wenger will stay put. He will wing it with Holding and Koscienly until Gabriel comes back and then decide, according to how Holding has been doing till then, who will partner Koscienly.

BUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF KOSCIENLY GETS INJURED BY THEN?



Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Wenger's transfer strategy is revealed

By 1970's Gooner

Everyone is buffled by Wenger's approach to transfers. And rightly so. Every year he announces that we are active in the market and loking to add to the squad. 

And every year he ends up being right. He buys one player of quality and a few youngsters from the lower leagues of England and France as well as the occasional Japanese or Korean forward.

And everyone gets exasparated...

Yet his aproach to buying a player is so obvious and predictable.

The player or players are scouted for the position that Wenger has identified as needing reinforcement. Thereafter the following criteria have to also be satisfied if the deal is to go ahead:

1. The player has to have the required quality
2. The right personality
3. He must want to play for Arsenal Football Club
4. His age has to be such that at the end of his contract there will be a reasonable resale value
5. The transfer fee inclusive of agent fees and his salary should be value for money

Once the first four above are satisfied Wenger has to convince the  player's club to sell. Here he employs various tactics:

1. An initial low bid is made. It gets out in the media and in this way the player is made aware. This puts extra pressure on the club.They dismiss the offer.

2. A second increased bid is made which is just below where Wenger values the player and which he considers the player's club would probably and reluctuntly accept.

3. Leaks begin to appear in the media that Arsenal are actively looking at other targets in that position. The player and his club may begin to get apprehensive.

4. The deal is left in the balance until the last days of the window. In this way if the club is willing or needs to sell is cornered into accepting a slightly increased offer.

At least the above is supposed to happen in an ideal Wenger world.

It more often than not transpires that either the player is not that hungry to force his way to Arenal or that his club does not need to sell unless it is quoted crazy money. 

The Lacazete transfer saga appears to be a case in mind. It may change of course as we get near the end of the window but it may not....

Which helps explain why Wenger always waits till the dying embers of the window in order to impose the price he considers right. Remember the Ozil and Arshavin transfers (while the xhaka transfer was agreed last season). 

And if the price is not considered right Wenger walks away.

The crux of the matter is that Wenger is under no pressure to win titles which affords him the time horizon to not overextend the club's budget and to promote youth from the academies.

No other top Pl manager would walk away from a player he wants for a few million pounds or even wait till the end of the window to conclude business. Not in this age where clubs are now awash with crazy money. 

Their life span is on average one and a half to two years and they need to make an almost immediate impact otherwise they are out.

Wenger's has far longer than that.

And even if he is going to walk away from his post at the end of this season he will not change.

Unless of course there is a new contract for him to sign which, considering his dithering in the transfer market, is my prediction.







Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Wenger finds perfect new striker only few considered. Now for a centre back

By 1970's Gooner

Gabriel's injury, which will keep him out for up to 8 weeks, coupled with the long term injury suffered in another pre season game by the BFG have forced Wenger to concentrate on getting at least one new central defender asap.

As analysed in a previous post on this site the available money will now be utilised for a new defender. There is no money left for a new forward and we all should be ready to come to terms with it.

BUT there is another very good reason as to why Wenger will not be buying a new forward.

The answer has been staring us in the face for a long time. 

Alexis Sanchez is the perfect number 9. He played the role so well against Man City. He ran their defenders rugged making those darting runs in between the lines as well as being very mobile around the dangerous areas. 

Such a player is a perfect compliment to the big but not so mobile Giroud allowing Wenger to choose one of them according to the needs of the game in front of him or indeed play them together in the front positions if he so chooses.

Playing Sanchez up front will also allow Wenger more flexibility in giving more games on the wings to Iwobi, Walcott who was very good against City, the Ox and even Ramsey and Wilshere. 

There will be no new centre forward bought this window.


This is my prediction.



Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Dutch fitness coach rates Arsenal injury record the worst in Europe

By 1970's Gooner

Dutch fitness coach Raymond Verheijen speaking on Talksport radio station has criticised the way English and foreign clubs carry out their pre season training.

He insists that almost all teams compress fitness training before friendlies begin in the opening 2 week period. This puts too much pressure on player's bodies resulting in muscle and related injuries.

He recommends that this type of training be spread over the 6 week preseason period so as to relieve the burden on the players.

Mourinio's sides, he said, suffer much less injuries than others becaucse Mourinho aspises this philosophy and incorporates it in the preseason schedule.

In contrast to Arsenal who do not and as a result have suffered the worst rate of injuries in Europe!



Thursday, July 28, 2016

Wenger has another option for a new centre back

By 1970's Gooner

The press has been publishing lists of central defenders that Wenger is including on his wish list now that the BFG will be out for the next 5 months.

But  I fear that if he spends good money to get a top defender then there will be that less money to get a top striker.

For you shouldn't be fooled by what Arsene is saying publicly that we can now enter the market for the top players. I prefer to believe Gazides when he says we can't compete with the big clubs. He holds the purse strings and he is speaking the truth in my opinion.

It seems that Arsenal have enough cash to make a big buy a year, more or less. And by paying top money on a new central defender there will be no funds left to buy a top forward which imo is more urgent.

The answer that he is likely to turn to is to move Monreal to the centre back position as he has played there before and performed quite well. In this way Gibbs will come into the side in his position at left back.

Koscienly is likely to be back to training by the 10th August and probably ready to play soon after.

Up to then Gabriel and Monreal will form the central defensive pairing. And Wenger will save the money to get a new striker that the team is crying out for.

All this can happen IF AND ONLY IF the money that is saved is properly utilised to get in a top top striker.












Saturday, July 23, 2016

Bookies slash odds on Mahrez joining Arsenal

By 1970's Gooner

It's not a surprise that as soon as Higuaín finished a medical pending his move to Juventus Arsenal have moved at lightning speed to bring Mahrez to the Emirates. It seems that Wenger has been waiting to see the outcome of the Higuaín saga and then reassess his options.

We have looked at the original source of the Mahrez rumour, Eurosport France, and all they say about their source is ' according to our information'. Now does this carry the same weight of authenticity as say 'Sky Sports understands'? 

Or is it another attempt by Mahrez's agent to extract a better contract from Leicester. Just as Vardy did with Arsenal....

Eurosport France do say that they contacted Mahrez's agent who was at Arsenal's friendly at Lens last night but he declined to comment....

In any case Ladbrokes has slashed the odds on this deal going through from evens to 8/13.

I am a skeptic with these rumours appearing in the press without any real authenticity behind them.





Saturday, July 16, 2016

Juventus distance themselves from Higuain transfer

By 1970's Gooner

It's beginning to feel like one of those rare occasions that Arsenal are closing in on a huge transfer. It now looks as though Juventus, who had supposedly entered the race for Higuaín's signature, are now ruling themselves out of it.

The Sporting Director of Juve, Fabio Paratici, has been commenting on the issue and said:

'Higuain for us is a distant thing.  I hear that Naples likes most of our players but I guarantee that at the moment there are no requests and there are no negotiations.... But the thing about Higuain I see it far away. "

This comes after it transpired that Napoli is not willing to let one of their best players strengthen their biggest rival. They would rather sell him outside Serie A.

And this leaves the field open for Arsenal and Wenger to zoom in on the negotiating table and finally agree a reasonable price for the player.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Napoli paper narrows it down to two obstacles for Higuain transfer

By 1970's Gooner

Local Napoli newspaper Il Matino is reporting that Higuaín will take stock of the situation re Arsenal's offer after his holidays along with his father Jorge and brother Nicolas.

However the paper puts it down to two things being satisfied if the deal is to go ahead. The first of course is the asking price. The release clause, which has now expired, is put at 94m euros. However De Laurentiis, the owner, is not budging from it. I think that it is expected that since this is his asking price he is bound to negotiate downwards. If he is willing to negotiate that is.

Because there is another issue which hasn't been picked up yet and Il Matino is highlighting. Napoli has to replace such a prolific goal scorer and finding someone who can come close to scoring 36 goals in 35 games is not really easy. And takes time of course.

This transfer has a long way to go obviously. But let's hope Wenger sticks to it and carries it through for this is the player Arsenal needs TO WIN THE LEAGUE.




Wednesday, July 13, 2016

It seems the national papers are taking notice of this blog!

By 1970's Gooner

It was a whole week ago that we here at 'Arsenal Analysis' published a list of all the Arsenal squad players involved in the Euro and Copa America. We also calculated their likely return dates for preseason taking into account the holiday time that Wenger normally gives to his players after such events.

Have a look here: http://arsenalanalysis.blogspot.com.cy/2016/07/key-players-already-out-of-first-league.html This article was published a whole week ago but only now have the national papers began publishing similar conclusions as ours.

It was clear form the analysis that at least Arsenal's major players like Ozil, Giroud, Koscienly and Ramsey will be out for the first game against Liverpool.

The national papers are sensationalising of course when they suggest that Apkom will be the only available striker for this game.

He has been told that he will not go out on loan in August but as you will realise Walcott will be fit and available.

Not a satisfactory state of affairs but hopefully Higuaín may be on board by then!





Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Wenger's pursuit of Higuain moving fast according to RaiSport

By 1970's Gooner

At last Arsene Wenger is getting his finger out. He has realised that he will soon be left behind by the new coaches/managers in the PL.

They have already started recruiting for key positions which will make them far stronger than last season. And if Arsenal are left behind then he runs the risk of leaving the club in shatters in his last season and thus tarnishing his legacy.

At least I hope that this is what he is thinking as the apparent generous offer for the transfer of Higuaín to Arsenal indicates so.

Arsenal are offering £42.2m plus Olivier Giroud to the Serie A side, but they are willing to go as high as £50m without the Frenchman. This is what journalist Ciro Venerato said at RaiSport. Higuain's  salary will be £6.8m-a-year for a four year contract. 

And Wenger has asked for a meeting next Thursday with Napoli to finalise the transfer... Things are indeed moving fast.

If this deal is concluded then it will be a major major statement by Arsene Wenger. He will have brought to the club a prolific goal scorer in a position that we were clearly proved weak. He has scored 36 goals in 35 League appearances for Napoli last season, a one to one ratio!

And the title challenge for the coming season will be the strongest in the last decade.