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Saturday, May 12, 2007

The probability of West Ham going down is low. But what about foul play?

By using basic probability theory we calculate the probability of West Ham being relegated at about between 6% and 19% ! Which is good news for West Ham fans of course. This assumes however no foul play (more on this later) and that the teams play to their known and recent capabilities.

If West ham are to go down two (independent) events need to happen. West Ham will have to lose and Wigan will have to win away at Sheffield United.

The calculation of the probability of W Ham going down therefore is the product (multiplication) of the probabilities of a win for Man Utd against West Ham which we put at between 65% and 75% and for Wigan to win away at Sheffield Utd which we put at between 10% and 25%. This is based on Wigan’s current away form and Sheffield Utd’s form at home.

The probability therefore of West Ham going down is between 6% (65% x 10% = 6%) and 19% (75% x 25%=19%).

However, if foul play comes into it then all the probability theories go out of the window!

If for example Man Utd are up 3 0 at half time then the temptation for Sheffield Utd and Wigan to collude (cheat?) so that wigan win the game is there. And given the huge stake of preserving their Premiership lives and the declared hostile attitudes of the clubs against West Ham, it may be more than a temptation.

The Premier League and the FA should closely monitor the situation. In fact to avoid even a suspicion that this may happen they should have rescheduled the Sheffield Utd Vs Wigan kick off time to take place before the Man Utd. Vs West Ham game
.

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