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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Wenger's transfer strategy is revealed

By 1970's Gooner

Everyone is buffled by Wenger's approach to transfers. And rightly so. Every year he announces that we are active in the market and loking to add to the squad. 

And every year he ends up being right. He buys one player of quality and a few youngsters from the lower leagues of England and France as well as the occasional Japanese or Korean forward.

And everyone gets exasparated...

Yet his aproach to buying a player is so obvious and predictable.

The player or players are scouted for the position that Wenger has identified as needing reinforcement. Thereafter the following criteria have to also be satisfied if the deal is to go ahead:

1. The player has to have the required quality
2. The right personality
3. He must want to play for Arsenal Football Club
4. His age has to be such that at the end of his contract there will be a reasonable resale value
5. The transfer fee inclusive of agent fees and his salary should be value for money

Once the first four above are satisfied Wenger has to convince the  player's club to sell. Here he employs various tactics:

1. An initial low bid is made. It gets out in the media and in this way the player is made aware. This puts extra pressure on the club.They dismiss the offer.

2. A second increased bid is made which is just below where Wenger values the player and which he considers the player's club would probably and reluctuntly accept.

3. Leaks begin to appear in the media that Arsenal are actively looking at other targets in that position. The player and his club may begin to get apprehensive.

4. The deal is left in the balance until the last days of the window. In this way if the club is willing or needs to sell is cornered into accepting a slightly increased offer.

At least the above is supposed to happen in an ideal Wenger world.

It more often than not transpires that either the player is not that hungry to force his way to Arenal or that his club does not need to sell unless it is quoted crazy money. 

The Lacazete transfer saga appears to be a case in mind. It may change of course as we get near the end of the window but it may not....

Which helps explain why Wenger always waits till the dying embers of the window in order to impose the price he considers right. Remember the Ozil and Arshavin transfers (while the xhaka transfer was agreed last season). 

And if the price is not considered right Wenger walks away.

The crux of the matter is that Wenger is under no pressure to win titles which affords him the time horizon to not overextend the club's budget and to promote youth from the academies.

No other top Pl manager would walk away from a player he wants for a few million pounds or even wait till the end of the window to conclude business. Not in this age where clubs are now awash with crazy money. 

Their life span is on average one and a half to two years and they need to make an almost immediate impact otherwise they are out.

Wenger's has far longer than that.

And even if he is going to walk away from his post at the end of this season he will not change.

Unless of course there is a new contract for him to sign which, considering his dithering in the transfer market, is my prediction.







3 comments:

Anonymous said...

He has a transfer strategy ?

Perhaps you should tell him about it...

Mark Wellington said...

Wenger won't spend 40 million on a player unless he's going to walk into the first team. Lacazette won't do that.

Nonso Anaetoh said...

And you failed to mention that some players become available late in the transfer window because clubs are looking to offload them to balance their books or for other reasons e.g. the Ózil and Welbeck deals.

The truth is that there is no fixed pattern for Wenger and you got it all wrong. Remember Sanchez, Cech and Xhaka deals were done early.

You are just doing a guess work to make Wenger look stingy (not wanting to add a few extra millions to get the players he wants) but transfer of some players can be smooth while others are problematic.

Imagine going to buy plan b or c (Balotteli) only for plan a (Welbeck) to become available later. Is easy to sit on an armchair and say "Wenger should buy x or y". If the transfer doesn't work, Arsenal is stuck with an unwanted player on a huge salary and have to do like ManU and DiMaria or Chelsea and Torres while we sit back and blame Wenger for the failed player.

Most of us have NO KNOWLEDGE of the transfer settings because we are not in the system.