What my 'computer' predicts for the top 4 places

By 1970's Gooner

We are due to return to the much awaited final run in for the Premier League with the title winner left to be decided, the three relegation places to be confirmed and of course the remaining third and fourth CL places hotly contested by four teams. 

Everyone including journalists are voicing and writing their opinion about who they think will finish in the 3rd and 4th places. But this is backed mainly by their intuition. They have not really sat down to put to paper their predictions nor have they really backed up these predictions with any structured justification.

Lets make it clear. The 'computer' I refer to in the title of this post is my personal thinking as to the likely outcomes of the games involving those chasing a top four placing but structured to follow some guidelines.

I have made therefore some, what I consider, realistic guiding assumptions regarding the outcome of each team's remaining games. 

These are as follows:

- Any games against the top two will be lost.

This affects Spurs the hardest as they have to play both Liverpool and Man City away. Also Man Utd play at home to Man City and Chelsea play at Liverpool.

- Any games between the current 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th teams will be drawn. This only affects Chelsea and Man Utd who play each other  at Utd. - All end of season fixtures are expected to be won by the four  competitors as I expect all opponents will be on the beach by  then, with relegation already decided and other safe teams  indifferent. Spurs Spurs apart, from playing the top two away from home, have  probably the easiest run in with 5 of their other 6 games being  at home against opponents they are very capable of beating.  These include Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, Brighton,  West Ham and Everton with only indifferent Bournemouth  away.  Predictions : 1.Liverpool (A)          0 2.Crystal Palace (H)  3 3.Huddersfield (H)    3 4.Man City (A)          0 5.Brighton (H)           3 6.West Ham (H)        3 7.Bournemouth (A)   3 8.Everton (H)             3 Total                        18 Current points        61 Final points             79 Man Utd I expect Man Utd to pick up a point from its two home fixtures  against Man City and Chelsea.  They have a Wolves game away just five days before Wolves play  their FA Cup semifinal. I expect Wolves will not have their full  wits for this fixture and Utd will win it.   Utd play against West Ham at home after their first CL game  against Barcelona and I expect them to win this game as  I consider West Ham will be indifferent. However Utd play  Everton away after their 2nd CL leg against Barcelona.  I expect them to draw this fixture due to tiredness  and disappointment from getting knocked out of the competition. Predictions: Watford (H)       3 Wolves (A)         3 West Ham (H)   3 Everton (A)        1 Man City (H)     0 Chelsea (H)        1 Huddsfield (A)   3 Cardiff (H)         3 Total                    17 Current points   58 Final points        75 Chelsea Apart from having to play Liverpool and Man Utd away, Chelsea  have a very easy and winnable fixture list with 4 of the remaining  6 fixtures at home ( Brighton, West Ham, Burnley and Watford)  and away at Cardiff and Leicester (last game).  However they go into the remaining fixtures 3 points away from  4th spot leaving them with a lot to catch up. Predictions: Cardiff (A)       3 Brighton (H)    3 West Ham (H) 3 Liverpool (A)  0 Burnley (H)     3 Man Utd (A)   1 Watford (H)    3 Leicester (A)   3 Total                  19 Current points  57 Final points       76 Arsenal Arsenal as you may know do not have to play any of the other top  five clubs around them. But 5 of their 8 games are away, which is  worrying as our away form, although better than last season,  is not ideal.  I would consider that the Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brighton  home games are very winnable.  However, and to take into account that our away form is not  great, I have not allowed an away win apart from the last  game of the season at Burnley where I would expect that  they will be safe by then (I expect that the current  bottom 3, Cardiff, Huddersfield and Fulham will  be relegated before the last game). I have however taken into account our recent upturn in form  which would allow us to at least draw the Everton, Watford,  Wolves and Leicester away games. The Watford game in  particular will be played a few days after our tough away  game at Napoli. However if we can master wins in some of those away games  then I predict we will be home and dry.  And of course momentum will be key. If we beat Newcastle  and then carry this form in the next game, which is away  at Everton, then the route to finishing in the top four will be wide  open. Predictions:                                                                                          Newcastle (H)         3                   Everton (A)            1                     Watford (A)           1 Crystal Palace(H)  3 Wolves (A)             1 Leicester (A)          1 Brighton (H)          3 Burnley (A)            3 Total                      16 Current points      60 Final points           76 So the final standings are as follows: Spurs      79points    3rd Arsenal   76 points   4th            Chelsea   76 points   4th Man Utd 75 points   6th Arsenal and Chelsea look like ending up with the same number  of points and the final placings will be decided on goal difference.  Currently Arsenal are ahead with 24 difference and Chelsea  7 behind with 17. This factor may indeed prove decisive. Unfortunately Spurs end up 3rd.  I hope I am wrong and we finish above them.