Arsenal Analysis: September 2007

Saturday, September 29, 2007

West ham Vs Arsenal : Predictions and Betting Suggestions

By Aries, Arsenal Analysis odds analyzer

My betting suggestions are based on the overall prediction for the outcome of the game.

I find myself agreeing with the analysis presented by 1970’s Gooner in his preview : Hleb is passed fit but who will replace Rosicky?

Although West Ham’s strengths are in the pace of Bellamy and Etherington (if they play) Clichy’s, Toure’s and Sagna’s pace will be enough to counter this threat.

Ashton’s aerial and physical threat is also a danger but again Arsenal’s central defenders for the day, Toure and Senderos, are equally tall and strong in the air.

I therefore believe that West Ham will find it difficult to score.

The return to the Arsenal team of hot shots Adebayor, who is on fire lately bagging a hat trick against Derby in his last outing and Robin van Persie, means that Arsenal will score more than one goal. The question is how many.

An away win for Arsenal with a two nil score line is achievable considering that West Ham are no push over. I expect Arsenal to score a second as West ham are likely to abandon caution if they find themselves one nil down.

On the other hand Arsenal are not likely to push for a third in case they give West Ham a chance to get back into the game. They also have an away encounter midweek in Romania to consider.

Best Odds:

Arsenal to win 5/6 Betdirect, Paddy Power, Sky Bet
Arsenal to win 2-0 10/1 Betdaq

Half Time Full Time

West Ham’s efforts are likely to be expended in keeping a clean sheet for the first half and they might achieve it. But with the football that Arsenal are playing anything can happen.

This is a difficult outcome to predict and I will not try to do so. However if you would like to bet a draw at half time and away win at full time the best odds are 57/17 with Expect.com

First scorer

You have to go with Adebayor who is in top goal scoring form at the moment. Back him to score the first goal.

Best odds: 11/2 Betdirect, Bet 365, Better

Last scorer

I would go for Bendtner as Eduardo is injured and will not feature. Nicklas was very good in midweek scoring a spectacular header. I expect him to come on late in the game when there will be tired legs and a more open contest. This will give him the chance to get on the score sheet.

Best Odds: 8/1 Blue Square, Coral

Arsenal to win a penalty

Arsenal have been awarded more penalties in the Premier League this season than any other club (four).

Now that Hleb is likely to play I can see (as 1970’s Gooner does) his intricate play and dribbling ability winning a penalty. Have a bet on Arsenal to win and convert a penalty.

Best Odds: 5/1 with ToteSport

The prices quoted are the best prices available at time of writing this article.

You should check team line ups before placing bets especially those involving individual players.

You should only bet if you have money to lose.

Good Luck!

Hleb is passed fit but who will replace Rosicky?

West ham Vs Arsenal : Predictions and Betting Suggestions

Friday, September 28, 2007

Hleb is passed fit but who will replace Rosicky?

By 1970’s Gooner

According to reports Hleb has been passed fit for the third away game of the season against West Ham United. The squad to make the short trip to Upton Park does not include the other wide midfield player, Rosicky, who has been impressive this season but is out with a hamstring.

This means that his participation in the Champions League game away to Steaoua in Bucharest is very doubtful as these kind of injuries usually take a minimum of two weeks to heal.

The squad for tomorrow’s game is as follows:

Almunia, Sagna, Toure, Senderos, Clichy, Walcott, Fabregas, Flamini, Diaby, Eduardo, Adebayor, Fabianski, Van Persie, Gilberto, Eboue, Diarra, Denilson, Hleb, Hoyte, Bendtner.

It does not include goalkeeper Jens Lehmann (elbow), captain William Gallas (groin) and Alex Song (calf)

The other wide midfield position is likely to be contested by three players. Diaby who has been preferred in that position recently, Walcott who played in the Carling Cup and the recently returned to fitness Eboue.

Walcott has not convinced yet that he is ready to be a regular in the team. He needs to improve his concentration and final ball.

But it’s still a difficult decision to make for Wenger who will have to decide between Diaby who has been in terrific form recently scoring a spectacular goal against Derby; or Eboue who played very well against Newcastle in the Carling Cup last Tuesday and is the more “natural” winger of the two.

In my opinion the tactical arguments dictate that the more natural winger, Eboue, should be chosen as he is much more penetrative on the wing and able to go past his defender. In this way he can create scoring opportunities for the forwards with his cut backs and his crosses.

Diaby on the other hand is a central midfielder not a winger. This is obvious for everyone to see. He also does not posses acceleration and speed at the levels that would allow him to stretch defenders.

Wenger however may take into account the defensive capabilities of Diaby which may be more important in a tough away game. So he may decide for Diaby who is on form anyway.

The Hammers have won their last three matches against Arsenal and were the last team to beat us back in April.

Curbishly is likely to bring pace back into the attack with Bellamy now fit to partner Ashton.

In the midfield he may opt for Parker who played in the midweek game against Plymouth along with Bowyer, Noble and Etherington. Although there is not enough creativity there he may consider that this is the best way to combat Fabregas and co.

Arsenal ex boy Upson will feature in defence. Other ex Arsenal players Boa Morte and Ljumberg may be on the bench.

This is going to be a tough game for Arsenal as West Ham will play with strength and tenacity bolstered with the Knowledge that they have done it before against the Gunners by playing in this way.

One of the major factors in their impressive performances has been the leadership and energy that Nigel Reo Cocker usd to bring into the team. Now ploughing his trade at Aston Villa. Performances that had Wenger considering putting bids for the player in the past.

With all due respect, Bowyer is a very poor substitute for Reo Cocker and I do not see the West ham midfield succeeding where Fulham, Blackburn, Manchester City, Portsmouth and Derby failed.

The only area that West Ham may have some joy is in the pace of Etherington and Bellamy. The first however is up against an equally pacy Clichy and with Diaby doubling up on him I do not see serious problems arising.

Bellamy however up against the relatively slower and error prone Senderos may cause us problems. I hope that Toure is able to cover for him as he did for Gilberto against Spurs.

I do not foresee real problems for the Arsenal defenders against Ashton as he is not that quick and tends to rely more on his strength and aerial ability. An area that both Toure and Senderos can cope very well.

Prediction: Arsenal have too much for the Hammers. Away win 0-2

Betting suggestion:

Arsenal have been awarded more penalties in the Premier League this season than any other club (four), but only converted three of them. Now that Hleb is likely to play I can see his intricate play and dribbling ability winning a penalty. Have a bet on Arsenal to win and convert a penalty 5/1 with Bet365.

Keep well.

Tottenham’s win against Cyprus minnows may be all down to a cheeky ball boy! (watch it on video)

Last night’s performance means that Arsenal will win trophies this year

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Tottenham’s win against Cyprus minnows may be all down to a cheeky ball boy! (watch it on video)

By 1970’s Gooner

So the 6-1 win that Spurs managed against the minnows of Cyprus, Anorthosis Famagusta, in the first round first leg tie at White Hart Lane last Thursday was not all down to good play.

Or even the weaknesses inherent in a team that has a budget which is about one hundredth that of Spurs.

A lot of the inept display by one of the Cypriot’s sides players was down to the cheekiness of a Spurs ball boy who decided his team needed a little bit of help!

He returned the ball to Kostas Loumboutis for a throw but not, as you would imagine, to his hands. He rather forcefully aimed it at the ex Twente player’s privates forcing him to wince from the pain inflicted.

Loumboutis gave him a very glaring look but decided to continue with the throw that was awarded to his team.

The crowd gave the boy, who was in the corner of The Shelf and the Park Lane, a rousing reception.

Watch the clip and the fans reception by clicking on the video window.

Last night’s performance means that Arsenal will win trophies this year

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

The young guns play the beautiful game (watch the highlights on video)

By 1970’s Gooner

One of the most satisfying aspects of last night’s performance is that the style of football played throughout all the Arsenal teams from the youth level to the first team is the same.

It is a style of football that has been labeled “beautiful” which very few teams in the world play. And this is instilled in the young guns from the moment they walk through the Academy doors.

You can watch the highlights on the video screen plus the goals and you will see what I mean.

Keep well.

Last night’s performance means that Arsenal will win trophies this year

Last night’s performance means that Arsenal will win trophies this year.

By 1970’s Gooner

While chatting over dinner the question was put to Arsene Wenger by some of the Arsenal directors:

“What would you do if we gave you £100m to spend on new players?” His answer was of course very revealing: “I would give it back to you”

Judging by last night’s excellent performance against Newcastle he was right.

You are only as good as your bench. This old football saying is very true in today’s highly demanding Premiership where the road to deliverance is like a marathon where every bit of each team’s components is tested to the full.

The components necessary to win trophies include not only ability, strength, determination, will and tenacity.

What is also required is a pool of players who although not usually expected to be named in the first eleven every week are nevertheless capable of performing at the highest level when they are called upon.

This is vitally important when you take into consideration injuries, loss of form, suspensions and international tournaments like the Africa Nations Cup which inevitably force managers to rely on all of their squad.

This was therefore an important match for Arsenal Football Club.

It was the litmus test that the young guns had to go through so that they could convince Wenger that there is strength in depth in this squad and that there is no need to spend any of that £100m that was offered to him by the Board.

And these young guns will be called upon on many occasions this season as the injury list will not go away and the Africa Nations Cup is slowly getting nearer.

One aspect that seems to characterize this new Arsenal side is the real strength in depth that exists in the squad. And by real I mean that this squad has quality replacements in all positions.

Take for example the forward positions. Bendtner’s wonderful performance last night culminated in another excellent headed goal for the Arsenal.

He has proved that Adebayor’s departure for a month at the Africa Nations Cup will not be that painful. The same goes for Eduardo who will need these games to acclimatise himself with English football even more by then.

Look at the wide midfield positions where along with Hleb and Rosicky there is Eboue who has shown last night that he is a wonderful and powerful winger on an equal if not higher footing than them.

He would of course fill in at right back when required. And there is young Walcott who will, with more concentration and experience, be more than a viable alternative.

Consider central midfield where Diarra is the snitch of the year at £2m! Not to mention Denilson who is fast becoming the next star after Fabregas.

Song who although played in central defence is to me a very promising central midfielder. I rather rate him in that position having watched him put in an excellent performance for Charlton away at Man Utd last season.

Look at Traore and you think that you are seeing double. So mush resemblance to a young Ashley Cole and Gael Clichy is uncanny!

There are indeed a lot of choices open to Wenger.

When I suggested in one of my preseason postings titled: “Strength in depth eases Wenger’s team selection worries for the coming season” that there was a lot of strength in depth in the squad there was a lot of negative reaction from some readers who wanted Wenger to buy big.

Now no one is complaining.

I do not need to go on. But this performance last night has convinced me that Arsenal will win trophies this season.

Please note the use of the plural.

Keep well.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Arsenal’s rookie defence Vs Martins and Viduka!

By 1970's Gooner

It will be carling Cup team that Wenger will put out in the sense that it will consist mostly of fringe players whose chances of getting a game in the first team are for the moment limited.

But so bold has Wenger’s selection and loan policy been in the past that a lot of these players have had considerable exposure and games.

Look at the squad announced which includes experienced “old hands” such as Senderos, Denilson, Song, who had an excellent loan season with Charlton in the Premier League last season, Bendtner who likewise was with Birmingham, Theo Walcott and Justin Hoyte who has played 49 games for Arsenal already.

The full squad is as follows:
Phillipe Senderos , Lassana Diarra, Eduardo, Denilson, Alexandre Song, Lukasz Fabianski (GK), Nicklas Bendtner, Emmanuel Eboue , Armand Traore, Justin Hoyte, Theo Walcott, Henri Lansbury , Vito Mannone(GK) , Gavin Hoyte, Fran Merida

Newcastle themselves are likely to field first team squad players mainly due to injury rather than out of choice.

These players however are seasoned professionals such as ex Arsenal target Martins, the excellent keeper Given who has been linked to Arsenal before, Faye and the Turk Emre Belozoglu. Viduka has shaken of a foot injury and will start.

So it will indeed be an interesting game between two teams not lacking in experience but one very young and the other much older.

The Arsenal line up could be as follows:

Fabiansky

Hoyte Senderos Song Traore

Walcott Diaby Diarra Denilson

Eduardo Bendtner

Now this is a very strong line up with the exception of Song playing in defence if indeed he starts there. I do not see how Wenger could otherwise fill in that spot from the squad announced unless he pits Diarra there.

He has tried Song in that position in some of the preseason friendlies, at Barnet and at Salzburg and I must say the youngster was rather lackadaisical in his approach.

He is obviously suited to playing in midfield and I rather rate him in that position having watched him put in a very sterling performance for Charlton away at Man Utd last season.

Wenger could be bold and field exciting youngsters Lansbury and Merida from the start which would make the tie more interesting from that point of view. And I hope he does so as it is only in this way that these players could get the experience they need. Fabregas started this way.

I think the game will be decided on how much the center of Arsenal’s defence, manage to perform against Viduka and the quick Martins. It looks a pretty tough task to me.

Prediction: Our attack manages to score more goals than our defence let in. 3-2

Arsenal battling with Manchester United to become the richest club

By 1970’s Gooner

Arsenal Holdings Plc has announced bumper figures for the year ended May 2006.

The results include the hugely positive effect of the extra revenues arising from the move to the Emirates.

Arsenal now take in £3.1m per match day as opposed to about half of that during the Highbury days.

What is also encouraging is that the debt taken up to build the stadium is only £260m and has now been wrapped up in a bond which has a 23 year repayment period with a very favourable average interest rate fixed at about 5.20%.

The stadium cost about £430m and the rest of the money not taken up as loans must have come from the company’s own cash and from advance sales of the property developments at Highbury, Hornsey Street and Queensland Road.

Bear with me a little longer till I give you the most important piece of information and then we will bring everything together to where we are all interested.

That is the cash available for transfers, the Board’s statement with regard to the use of the cash generated and where Arsenal would stand in the world rankings next year.

Arsenal have reported a net profit of only £5.6m. This is after tax, transfers, interest payments and a one off non repeatable expense of £21.4m (which represents fees and other expenses paid to banks for arranging the loans and the bond issue).

However when you take out the "one off non repeatable expense" then the profits rise to £27m! And this is after paying off the interest for the loans raised to build the stadium!

Most of this profit comes from match day revenue with only £6m from the sale of property.

So from the financial point of view the move to the Emirates has been a very sound investment decision which will continue to generate profits for years to come.

And these profits generate a lot of cash that are theoretically available for transfers; if Wenger chooses to use them that is!

The figure banded about of £74m is the cash sitting in the company’s bank account! And this is after paying out £38m for the property developments.

When this side of the operations is completed there will be even more cash available for transfers totalling about £120m!

It is very interesting to note what the Board have to say about how this cash is to be used:

“Despite the income and profits we expect to derive form the operations, shareholders should not expect growing profits and growing cash balances.

The Board believe that the best long term policy is to re-invest the cash back into the development of the team. The objective is to make available to the manager the maximum possible funds for the development of the playing squad.”

So this is a clear message that profit taking by the shareholders is not on the agenda. It is also an indirect way of implying that a new owner may wish to use the club’s cash for other reasons.

And these reasons maybe to recover the original investment, or provide a return for the capital invested and /or pay off of the debt that may have been incurred to buy the club in the first place!

None of these pressing targets are bothering the existing Board. And we should be grateful for that.

But this is not all. There are other variables not taken into account in these financial accounts that are going to push the revenues and profits to an even higher level than before, which may propel the club to the top of the rich club.

There is an additional £30m to come next year and every year after that from the new deal which the FA has concluded with regard to selling the Premier League TV contracts.

And there is the additional cash that may be generated from the progress of the club in the Champions League. Last season Arsenal were knocked out in the last 16 round. The year they reached the final the take was £20m!

Leaving the Champions League revenue out of the equation as it is uncertain at the moment and assuming a modest rise in other revenues it is conceivable that Arsenal’s turnover will rise from the 200m in 2006 to about £235m.

This however includes property development turnover of £26m repeatable for the next three years only.

Arsenal’s expected turnover does not include the profit from Wenger’s transfer activity this year which includes the £16m from Henry’s transfer to Barcelona plus the salary savings of the transferred players.

This is because this will not have an effect on the “operational” turnover figures of the club.

It will of course have a huge impact on the profits and cash generated (see my posting “Arsenal's transfer kitty is still bulging”)

Now let’s have a look at the big earners league table

CLUB REVENUE (2005-06 season)

Real Madrid - £202.0m
Barcelona - £179.1m
Juventus - £173.7m
Man Utd - £167.8m
AC Milan - £165.0m
Chelsea - £152.8m
Inter Milan - £142.8m
B Munich - £141.5m
Arsenal - £133.0m (rose to 200m for the 2006-07 season)
Liverpool - £121.7m

Arsenal are now second in the big earners table just behind Real Madrid. Next year they are likely to be pushing for first place.

This will depend on how well Man Utd do from the rise in their ticket prices, the increase in seating capacity and the new TV money.

My estimations are that their turnover will rise by about £65m to reach the level of Arsenal’s expected turnover of about £235m (Man Utd expect that their revenues per game will increase by 23% to reach the same level as Arsenal’s).

So both teams will be vying to be top of the League in both the football and financial arenas.

I think for now we would settle with staying on top of the League. Wouldn't you?

“Arsenal's transfer kitty is still bulging”

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

Saturday, September 22, 2007

The glory days are coming back. Watch all 5 goals on video

By 1970’s Gooner

Awesome, fantastic, at a canter, untouchable. These are some of the eulogies that can be appropriately used to describe the performance against Derby at the Emirates.

The boys won without even breaking sweat. They were professional in their approach, played at almost the same tempo till the end and trounced Derby for five.

We are sitting on top of the League with Manchester City 3 points behind (but with a game more) followed by Liverpool with 4 points behind.

Liverpool failed to beat Birmingham who were aided greatly in their cause by ex Gunner Larson (who has improved a lot), ex Arsenal trialist Wilson Palacios,who was recommended to Steve Bruce by Wenger only last August and by Johan Djourou who was at the heart of Birmingham’s defence!

And it doesn’t stop there. Mourinholess Chelsea travel to Manchester United tomorrow. A draw will be ideal of course but frankly any result would do for us.

The strength in depth of this squad is amazing. Diaby playing out of position again as a left winger scored a stunner from outside the area, Adebayor got his first hat trick for the club and Fabregas got his customary goal with a stinker from outside the area.

Watch them all at the top of the page by clicking on the video screen.

Enjoy!

Injuries and rotation a test for Arsenal against Debry

By 1970's Gooner

I made the time to watch Derby’s last game against Newcastle at home which they won 1-0 with a wonderful long range effort from ex Wolves striker Kenny Miller. I did not see what I expected to see.

And that was Derby struggling to keep up with newly Allardyce invigorated Newcastle, even if they were playing at home.

They did after all suffer four Premier League defeats on the trot prior to this game (as well as the Carling Cup defeat on penalties to Blackpool) letting in 13 goals and scoring only one, against Birmingham at home.

Against Newcastle they were compact and solid and they passed the ball to feet more than they hoofed it up in the air. They played with a quick tempo and were not short of confidence.

They were aided and abated however by a dismal Newcastle performance which was indeed strange to observe. Not all is well in the Newcastle home at the moment and let’s hope they stay like that at least till we play our rearranged game.

So I am not one of those that are allowing the euphoria created from the wonderful home win against Sevilla to affect my judgment.

Derby, confident from their win against Newcastle, are going to play a cautious game packing their defence and midfield looking to snatch a goal when the opportunity arises. They have after all not too much to lose as no one expects them to get anything out of the game.

As the American Benny Feilhaber said “whether we get the points or not the most important thing is to go there and perform to the best of our abilities. If we can get a point out there then it’s a huge confidence boost for us”

Added to this, account has to be taken of the Arsenal injuries (Hleb and Rosicky are the casualties from the Sevilla game) and Wenger’s stated desire to rest players.

“I will rotate a little bit and try to get the right mixture between stability and some fresh legs as well, “he said on Arsenal.com

So keeping up the same level of beautiful football we saw the other night may be a bit more difficult to achieve for Arsenal. A lot will depend on which players are rested and which are selected.

There are indeed a lot of choices open to Wenger. When I suggested in one of my preseason postings that there was a lot of strength in depth in the squad there was a lot of negative reaction from some readers who wanted Wenger to buy big. Now no one is complaining.

So one can only speculate as to who Wenger will rest and who will play. My logic tells me that he will keep the same defence as that is the safe and sensible thing to do. Also keeping a clean sheet will improve confidence levels especially for Senderos who needs it and for Almunia.

Wenger’s biggest decision however is whether to rest the little maestro, Fabregas. If he does it will have to be Denilson coming in as he is a direct replacement like for like. But I think he may not want to as Fabregas’s distribution and command of the midfield is irreplaceable.

He will after all get a whole week’s rest after the game until we meet West Ham away Saturday week. I am assuming that a second and third string line up will be selected for the midweek carling Cup game against Newcastle.

The other decision is whether to rest any of the front two players while giving Eduardo a deserved start. I think he will and it may be Adebayor. Not because he is particularly tired but Wenger may see this as an opportunity for RVP to get on the score sheet again and carry on restoring some of his goal scoring confidence.

Based on pure footballing reasons however it’s better to pit a tall strong front player like Adebayor with a smaller forward like Eduardo. But Wenger does not always subscribe to convention.

My starting 11 are as follows:

Almunia

Sagna Toure Senderos Clichy

Walcott Fabregas Gilberto Denilson

Van Persie Eduardo

But there are so many viable options available for Wenger it is indeed difficult to second guess him!

Prediction:

We managed to come out on top with our predictions so far this season but after all when the team is doing well and winning it’s more difficult to get it wrong than right!

However the predictions for a 1-1 draw at Blackburn, of a 1-3 away win at Tottenham and our forecast of a 3-1 win against Sevilla (it was 3-0 in the end) are the ones that we are particularly proud of.

So we are going to stick our neck out for this one. Arsenal carry on their winning way but rotation and a little bit of the inevitable complacency will probably result in a low score but a clean sheet. 1-0

Let’s not get carried away

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Let’s not get carried away

By 1970’s Gooner

This wasn’t a total performance as many pundits or even Robin Van Persie will have us believe. And I am not saying this just to be a killjoy or to sound different from all the other eulogizing journalists or blogs dedicated to Arsenal.

Yes it was a very good performance against a neat and skillful Sevilla side who were taught a lesson, as many teams who step up a league, usually are.

They paid the penalty of coming to the Emirates and playing in their usual attacking style.

This allowed a lot of space for the Arsenal creative players to roam in and display their undoubted skills. And when these skills are complimented with a shoot on target policy then danger looms.

But until Fabregas scored his deflected goal it was Sevilla who were the more attractive and forceful side (you can watch the goals by clicking on the Video window).

Ramos’s decision to rest their most important midfielder, Keita, so that another colleague could mark the “unmarkable” Fabregas deprived Sevilla the thrust they so badly needed from midfield.

It also curtailed the support to their main strikers. What is the use of playing in an offensive formation if you deprive the forwards of their supply line?

This was not really a complete performance by Arsenal although it gave promise that this feat is not far from becoming a reality!

A complete performance is when all the parts of the team function perfectly in their individual roles but also as a unit. And there were some individual performances that needed improving.

Senderos was still an accident waiting to happen and it almost happened on three occasions.

The most notable one was when he miskicked a clearance from a low cross from the right allowing the ball to run across the goal in front of Almunia. Only good fortune saved the day as the opposing forward missed his kick as well.

His positioning was again suspect. He lost his man, Kanoute, twice. His shot was saved on the one occasion and on the other he narrowly missed the header.

In attack Adebayor, who admittedly is improving in leaps and bounds with every game, still has to improve his ball skills and control. He also has to add finishing (in a consistent manner) to his other attributes of strength, forcefulness and aerial ability.

His position in the team is becoming very pivotal as his aerial strength and his ability to fend off defenders brings another dimension that was lacking before.

RVP apart from his goal was not his usual penetrative self. Also his link up play with Adebayor still needs to be honed further.

I am not nit picking; I am just trying to bring everyone back to earth.

When Gallas returns and the front two start getting it together then yes we will see a complete performance!

Now an area of Arsenal’s play I was really excited about was their defensive collectiveness. And by this I mean that the desire, positioning and defensive approach when the ball was lost was evident in all eleven players.

It was not just confined to the players at the back or the defensive midfielders. This was especially true of the excellent wide players, Hleb and Rosicky, who were not only creative going forward but doubled up pretty quickly at the back to defend against the Sevilla wing players.

It was also noticeable in Van Persie and Adebayor who were always tracking back to hurry and hassle the Sevilla midfielders often winning the ball.

The whole team played as unit. This is something that was very evident during the “untouchables” season.

Now, let’s not get carried away.

Selection dilemmas for Wenger

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Selection dilemmas for Wenger

By 1970’s Gooner

Arsene Wenger has a decision to make for the Champions League Group H encounter against Sevilla. Does he continue with Gilberto in central defence or does he opt for the returning Senderos.

This is a much more difficult decision than it first appears because either selection will have repercussions elsewhere in the formation of the team but also in Wenger’s future planning.

Let’s be more specific.

On the footballing side if he sticks with Gilberto then he has another dilemma. Who plays in the central midfield position next to fabulous Fabregas?

I know what he will decide because when faced with the same selection question before it was Flamini rather than the unlucky Diaby.

I say unlucky because Diaby to my mind is a far more forceful and powerful player best suited for this position than Flamini.

Especially when you consider that Sevilla’s midfield includes Keita who is a strong battler and powerful player who provides the engine in this attractive Sevilla side.

However if Wenger sticks with Gilberto in defence this leaves Senderos out of the starting eleven. Not a problem you might say; and I would agree.

His positioning has been suspect which is, however, important for a defender whose pace is not his best attribute.

Having watched Sevilla demolish Recreativo Huelva 4-1 the other night I am worried about their forward line which includes the very wily and pacy pairing of Kanoute and the Russian Kerzakov.

Gilberto and Senderos are not blessed with a lot of pace but Gilberto may just get the nod due to his experience and better positional sense.

Leaving Senderos out will be a big psychological blow for the young player.

He will inevitably interpret this decision to mean that the manager has lost faith in him and start questioning his future at the club.

Another dilemma?

The other selection decision for Wenger is whether to stick with Robin Van Persie in attack. You might be raising your eyebrows at this moment, but I like to call them as I see them.

Van Persie has gone off the boil in recent games. He was largely absent at the Lane and also during the game against Portsmouth.

We should not let the exciting win at Tottenham distract us from judging a player’s performance.

As I said in my analysis of the game we are going to face tougher opponents than Spurs in the future who are not going to miss chances and who are not going to hand us goals on a plate.

Eduardo was not even on the bench against Spurs so he has been rested and is ready to go having scored three goals in his last two international games for Croatia. He has also scored for Arsenal in the Champion’s League qualifier at the Emirates against Sparta Prague.

If the selection decision is simply based on form then Van Persie should be on the bench.

I would hope and expect that Wenger will reinstall Rosicky on the left flank. He was probably rested for the game against Spurs for this purpose.

My starting 11 would include Gilberto in defence, Diaby in central midfield, Rosicky on the left of midfield and Eduardo in attack. The rest pick themselves.

But Wenger knows best right?

Prediction

We managed to come out on top with our predictions so far this season but after all when the team is doing well and winning it’s more difficult to get it wrong than right!

However the predictions for a 1-1 draw at Blackburn and that of a 1-3 away win at Tottenham are the ones that we are proud of.

For tonight’s game both teams play open attractive football in a 4 4 2 formation. This means that there will be goals and I expect Arsenal to come out on top; 3-1

Tottenham’s weaknesses more serious than Arsenal’s

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Kanouté: “Arsenal have problem at the back”

By 1970’s Gooner

Frederic Kanouté speaking on the eve of Sevilla’s first Champion’s League game at the Emirates has pinpointed what he thinks is Arsenal’s major weakness and how Sevilla can beat them.

The Sevilla newspaper ABC.es quotes him as follows:

“Arsenal is a team that plays very rapidly in attack, it plays to feet, and I believe that it can have problems at the back because it is very offensively minded”

Kanute a summer transfer target for a lot of Premiership clubs (some newspapers included Arsenal in that list) got two of the four goals Sevilla scored in their demolition of Recreativo Huelva by 4-1 on Sunday night .

Sevilla were very impressive against Recreativo Huelva going 3-0 before the opponents could reply.

They also missed a penalty with the Russian international Kerzhakov, who played against England at Wembley last Wednesday, firing way over the bar.

He eventually added a second and Sevilla’s fourth with an impressive shot from a diagonal position just inside the area. He is another player the Arsenal defence will have to watch carefully.

Kanoute considers that Sevilla are now stepping into a competition which is of a higher level than the UEFA cup they have won on successive occasions.

“We are prepared to give a higher level of performance. I know that it will be more difficult to play before teams such as Arsenal”

Kanoute has also said that he considered Cesc Fabregas to be Arsenal’s main player, “the engine of the team” and the way to stop Arsenal playing will be to block the opponent’s key players.

If we can manage that and start quickly as always then we can achieve the win”.

Monday, September 17, 2007

Ramos respects Arsenal

By 1970's Gooner

Juande Ramos, the Sevilla coach coveted by North London rivals Spurs to take over from Martin Jol, does not intend to change the team’s playing style for the game at the Emirates against Arsenal on Wednesday.

“We have a style and a way of playing. We are not going to change very much. In Europe all games are hard. The two teams are about equal in strength. We respect them and they respect us”

Speaking at the post match conference after they demolished Recreativo Huelva 4-1 he qualified that statement by saying a lot will depend on whether Arsenal allow them to play their usual game.

Sevilla were very impressive against Recreativo Huelva going 3-0 before the opponents could reply.

They also missed a penalty with the Russian international Kerzhakov, who played against England at Wembley last Wednesday, firing way over the bar.

He eventually added a second and Sevilla’s fourth with an impressive shot from a diagonal position just inside the area.

Freddie Kanute a summer transfer target for a lot of Premiership clubs (some newspapers included Arsenal in that list) got the other two. He will be a danger when the two teams meet.

Included in the squad to travel to London is Brazilian international striker Luis Fabiano who had been out with a foot injury, but Akone who faced Arsenal during last season’s Champion’s League campaign for PSV has been surprisingly left out after making his debut against Recreativo Huelva.

The full squad is: Palop, De Sanctis; Daniel Alves, Hinkel, Fazio, Escude, Boulahrouz, Dragutinovic; Poulsen, Marti, Maresca, Keita, Renato, Navas, Duda, Capel; Luis Fabiano, Kerzhakov and Kanoute.

Tottenham’s weaknesses more serious than Arsenal’s

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

Tottenham’s weaknesses more serious than Arsenal’s

By 1970’s Gooner

In my preview of the game I was worried for Arsenal on two counts. The first was Gilberto’s jet lag and related fatigue and the second was the persistent choice by Wenger to select Flamini ahead of Diaby.

Gilberto did indeed nearly prove a liability as he was at fault for the first goal and for at least two glaring positional errors which nearly gifted Spurs what would have probably proved crucial goals.

Let me explain.

Tottenham’s goal came after a needless free kick given away by Gilberto in a dangerous area outside the box.

It was a foul from behind on a player was had his back to goal and more importantly was going away from the area! I can only assume that it was tiredness which blurred Gilberto’s decision making.

The same excuse can be given for his two positional errors late in the game and his lack of pace to get back.

Thankfully, as predicted in my preview of the game, Toure was at hand to thwart the danger on the one occasion. For the second Almunia saved Keane’s shot when he raced through free in the area one on one with the goalkeeper.

But Wenger’s decision to continue with Flamini in central midfield is strange. Ok he knows best etc but surely Diaby is a far more forceful and powerful player best suited for this position than Flamini.

The decision on this occasion did not result in anything serious. But when we come up against better and more forceful midfields than what Tottenham had on show it will.

Added to this an even more strange decision, which had me scratching my head to understand its reasoning, was Diaby’s deployment as a left winger!!!

This selection was made on two occasions before. The last one was against Chelsea at the Emirates in the 1-1 draw and against Aston Villa away when in fact Diaby inadvertently scored the only goal of the match.

I seem to recollect that on those occasions Wenger’s options were limited due to injuries. But against Spurs he had Rosicky on the bench as well as Walcott and Denilson.

Surely Rosicky could not have been deemed too tired to start the game? Even if he was he could have been substituted in the second half if and when the need arose. But to start with Diaby on the left flank was close to criminal in my mind.

He was the worst performer from the Arsenal side until his substitution by Rosicky who helped change the game when he came on.

Again, selection mistakes like this might go unnoticed when you play the lesser teams but against the big ones you are only as strong as your weakest link, remember.

In the end however Tottenham’s weakest links proved more serious than Arsenal’s. As indicated in my preview of the game they have a serious weakness in the center of their defence and in their midfield.

The absence of King and the deployment of two young and relatively inexperienced central defenders along with an uncertain goalkeeper, when it comes to high balls, was always going to be their undoing.

They also lack a creative midfielder but more importantly they lack penetration from the wings. Clearly the absence of Lennon removes a large part of their threat going forward.

Maybe Wenger’s decision to start with Diaby was that he fell for Jol’s mind games before the match hinting that Lennon was fit and could start.

In the end my prediction of 1-3 proved correct!

Interesting moments of the game; for me

- The assist given for Arsenal’s first goal by a Spurs supporter! He tried to run on to the pitch as Fabregas was taking a quick free kick which inadvertently caused the referee to bring play back. Fabregas retook the free kick and the rest is history!

- Adebayor’s Henriesque second and Arsenal’s third goal. If it was Henry or even Robin Van Persie that scored it everybody would have been really raving about it

- Bent’s glaring miss with only Almunia to beat. His comments before the game are now coming back to haunt him. He also proved that his only similarity to Henry is the transfer price.

Arsenal’s weaknesses Vs Tottenham’s. Preview and Prediction

Mind games from Jol and Wenger

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Arsenal’s weaknesses Vs Tottenham’s. Preview and Prediction

By 1970’s Gooner

You are only as good as your weakest link. And for Arsenal's last game we did unfortunately spot the weakest link in our preview. Senderos's red card nearly jeopardised a fine performance by this young, but now determined to prove everyone wrong, squad.

Arsenal’s weaknesses are today centered in two positions. In central midfield the enforced deployment of Gilberto brings with it two problems.

The first is jet lag and fatigue. He did not get back to St Albans, his home, till yesterday afternoon which does not really allow him much recovery time.

Remember he did play the full 90 minutes for Brazil against the USA last Sunday and 75 minutes on Thursday morning against Mexico in Boston.

The second problem is Gilberto’s relative lack of pace which may be exposed against Spurs’ very quick front two of Berbatov and Keane.

I am worried about this and I hope that his experience, astute positioning awareness and Toure’s cover will get us through relatively unscathed.

Arsenal’s second weakness may be a self inflicted one. For some reason Wenger has put Flamini ahead of Diaby in the pecking order.

It is bleeding obvious that Diaby is a far superior player on all counts which are too numerous to mention in this posting.

Tottenham’s weaknesses lie in defence and in the midfield areas. The absence of King and the forced deployment of the inexperienced Dawson and newcomer Kaboul leaves huge gaps at the back.

In midfield they lack a creative midfielder which Jenas clearly is not but there is also not enough penetration on the flanks.

Lennon’s absence has cost them a lot. I do not think he will start today and that leaves Melbranque and Bale to fill these positions. The first lacks quality and is not penetrative enough and the other is too young.

Conclusion

If Gilberto wakes up in time and manages to put in a decent performance aided ably by Toure then it will be another North London triumph for the Arsenal.

Prediction: 1-3 to the Arsenal

Mind games from Jol and Wenger

Friday, September 14, 2007

Mind games from Jol and Wenger

By 1970’s Gooner

First it was Jol who a few days ago let the world of North London know that Aaron Lennon was ready to return to first team action.

Then Wenger had to reply with his “dilemma” of whether to start with Diarra in the right back position.

Who the hell are they kidding?

Lennon has been out since March due to a knee operation. That is a good four and a half months without running, touching a ball or playing a competitive game (or even a reserve game).

He has only been back to training with the ball two weeks ago.

Do you really think that Jol has any intention of naming Lennon in the starting eleven for a crunch derby game.

A game where every inch of grass will be fought over like it is a North Pole oil reserve free for all finders’ keepers?

Bring him on I say! Clichy will have him for breakfast. He would have subdued him anyway even if Lennon was at peak fitness.

Meanwhile on the other side of North London Arsene Wenger is not really sure what to do for the right back position.

Does he start with Diarra or Flamini or Sagna or indeed Hoyte? So many options it’s embarrassing!

Really?

Granted, Diarra has played two consecutive internationals for France in this position so he is match fit.

He has not impressed me very much but what is important of course is the impression he made on Mr Wenger.

However, would it be sensible to start with a player whose normal position is in central midfield and has never played for the club yet, let alone in the North London Derby?

Especially when you have the club’s two recognized right backs fit and rearing to go.One, Sagna, has been excellent in all of his appearances so far. The other, Hoyte, has been trusted with that position for more than 50 games.

Not to mention the excellent Flamini who, when asked to fill in this position, has been as good as any of the club’s other right backs.

In fact I personally think that Flamini can have a successful career in this position (especially at left back where Arsenal do not yet have adequate cover).

So let’s stop the mind games please.

Come to think about it I hope that Mr Wenger is playing mind games and Mr Jol is not!

The real dilemma for Wenger is who to pick to partner Fabregas in midfield; Diaby or Flamini.

The real dilemma for Jol is whether to pick young Bale for his first North London derby on the left flank or go for more experience.

Fabregas is a more effective player than Scholes. The statistical analysis backs it up

By 1970’s Gooner

Everybody, including Wenger, is comparing Fabregas with Scholes.

“The frame, intelligence in the game, passing ability and knowing when to go into the box. He is only 20 and people forget that." Said Wenger in his Portsmouth post match conference.

They are indeed similar players. They both play in central midfield and they are both playmakers of their respective sides. Excellent football players.

But Fabregas is a better footballer for Arsenal than Scholes is for Manchester United. A very bold statement you might say especially coming from a very biased Arsenal supporter.

Well, is it however?

Because they occupy the most influential parts of the pitch, midfielders are more likely to influence the outcome of a match than other positions, especially if they have vision for a good pass or ability to score.

It is generally accepted that outstanding midfielders need to posses a number of attributes on top of fitness: technique and ball skills, tackling, retaining possession and distribution, shooting and scoring as well.

We have managed, with great difficulty, to find statistical data for each player’s performance on most of the above attributes. They are presented in the table at the end of this article.

Now on which of those do you think Scholes is better than Fabregas?

Technique and ball skills

I would place Fabregas above Scholes in this area. Scholes is more of an energetic type of player who possesses average technique and ball skills. And by average I don’t mean that he is not good at it. He is average and Fabregas is above average.

Scholes does tend to release the ball much earlier than Fabregas (mainly due to Man Utd’s style of play) so we don’t have a chance to fully assess his ball skills under the pressure of an opponent sticking close to him while he is running with the ball.

You would not however classify him as a technical player. Certainly not at the same level as Fabregas who, when on the ball, gives you the illusion that time stands still.

He has the flair to manipulate the ball, shield it, run with it and release it to the right player at the appropriate time.

Usually, as is often said, fouling you is one of the better compliments that an opponent will give you.

During last season Fabregas was fouled 82 times and Scholes only 34. This is continuing this season with the respective stats being 7 against 2.

Tackling

So far there is not much to choose between them in terms of tackling.

12 tackles won for Scholes against 10 for Cesc with the latter having played a game less this season (I could not find data for the total number of tackles per player; only successful tackles!)

For the record Reo Cocker of Aston Villa has the most tackles won so far, 25 with a success rate of 72% whereas Bikey of Reading has a 90% success rate but with only 21 tackles won.

Tackling: 2007/08 season

Tacklers Team Tackles Success rate

Reo-Coker Aston Villa 25, 72%
Jenas Tottenham 24, 71%
Bikey Reading 21, 90%
Boateng Middlesbrough 20, 85%
Malbranque Tottenham 20, 70%

Source: Skysports.com (Opta stats)

In terms of commitment both Scholes and Cesc seem to concede the same number of fouls (73 for Scholes vs 78 for Fabregas last season) so there does not seem to be a great deal of difference on this count.

Fabregas has improved a lot this season and the increase in his body weight (by a few kilos apparently) has certainly added steel to his tackles. A recent example of course that tackle on Repka in Prague.

On the other hand Scholes’ style is not really that of a strong or indeed effective tackler.

Proof is the clumsiness of his tackles and the red and yellow cards he receives as a result.

The stats bear this out; 2 red cards and 12 yellows for Scholes last season to no red cards and 9 yellows for Fabregas.

Distribution

Effectiveness in the distribution of the ball can to my mind be measured by the number of passes and their accuracy.

However distribution effectiveness should also take into account the number of assists for each player.

Apart from actually scoring, a goal assist is the most important “distribution” a midfield player can make.

Scholes is way ahead of Fabregas on the distribution stakes.

He is by far the Premier League’s top passer so far this season with 409 and a pass accuracy of 89%.

Passing: 2007/08 season

Passers Team Passes Accuracy

Scholes Man Utd 409, 89%
Ferdinand Man Utd 310, 90%
Vidic Man Utd 303, 87%
Lampard Chelsea 259, 86%
Hamann Man City 246, 83%

Source: Skysports.com (Opta stats)

Fabregas on the other hand is nowhere near Scholes on this count. His count is 216 passes with a success rate of 79%. If we take into account games played, Scholes puts together 82 passes per game to 54 for Fabregas.

Again, Scholes does tend to release the ball much earlier than Fabregas and also makes a lot of short passes where accuracy is relatively easier to achieve.

It’s not a surprise that the next two players behind Scholes in the table above are both central defenders who do have a tendency to pass the ball short and usually to each other or to the midfielders.

On the goal assists however Fabregas is way ahead with 2 so far this season against none from Scholes; and before you say that the sample is too small look at the stats for last season: 16 assists for Cesc and only 3 for Scholes.

Fabregas is therefore by far the more effective passer of the ball of the two even if Scholes passes the ball more often.

Goal scoring ability

It’s all very well to possess all the above attributes but if a player can’t chip in with the goals he will never be the complete midfielder.

Scholes has the upper hand with 7 goals scored during Manchester United’s title wining season.

Fabregas scored 4 which considering Arsenal’s problems last season is not such a bad record when placed against Scholes’.

This season Fabregas is ahead with 2 against 1 (in the Premier League).

What is interesting however is the number of goal attempts.

Last season Cesc had more than twice the number of shots on goal with 59 vs 27. This is continuing this season with 5 against 3.

So on the goals count Fabregas is closing the (small) gap that was there last season.

Conclusion

I would consider Fabregas a more effective player than Scholes.

He has better technique and ball skills (although this, I concede, can only be a personal opinion), he is a more effective passer of the ball due to his far superior number of goal assists , tackles as effectively as Scholes and is now scoring at the same rate as Scholes.

Fabregas Vs Scholes: Vital Statistics 2007/08 Vs 2006/07

The first column corresponds to the 2007/08 Premier League season and the second column to the 2006/07 season in all competitions. Blank columns indicate lack of data.

Francesc Fabregas
________________________________________
Born: 04.05.1987
Birthplace: Arenys de Mar
Height:180 cm
Weight: 76 kg
Position: Midfielder

________________________________________
Fouls committed 3, 78
Fouls suffered 7, 82
Assists 2, 16
Attempts created 8,
Won contest 3,
Total passes 216,
Red Card 0, 0
Accurate Passes 170,
Clean Sheet 1,
Won Tackles 10,
Scoring attempts 12, 99
Good high claims 0,
On target attempts 6, 59
Goals 2, 4
Yellow Card 1, 9
Minutes played 360,
Total contest 4,
Clearance 7,

Paul Scholes
________________________________________
Born: 16.11.1974
Birthplace: Salford
Height:170 cm
Weight: 69 kg
Position: Midfielder

________________________________________

Fouls 5, 73
Fouls suffered 2, 34
Assists 0, 3
Attempts created 9,
Won contest 0,
Total passes 409,
Red Card 0, 2
Accurate Passes 363,
Clean Sheet 3,
Won Tackles 12,
Scoring attempts 12, 42
Good high claims 0,
On target attempts 3, 27
Goals 1, 7
Yellow Card 0, 12
Minutes played 450,
Total contest 3,
Clearance 1,

Sources: ESPN, Daily Telegraph

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Eduardo fox in the box again. Plus the goal on video

By 1970's Gooner

Eduardo Da Silva bagged another goal for his adopted country, Croatia, to make it nine goals in this qualifying campaign.

Croatia put six past the hapless Andorrans in front of a crowd of just 200 spectators and are now top of England’s group. Srna opened the scoring from a free kick. Portsmouth’s Niko Kranjcar also got on the score sheet.

Eduardo’s goal, which you can see on the video (the first screen), came in the 55th minute and was the fifth in line.

It is a typical fox in the box goal pouncing on a loose ball in the penalty area.

Barring injuries, Eduardo is unlikely to start against Spurs on Saturday, as Adebayor and Robin Van Persie now look the established front two for Wenger.

His current goal scoring form for Croatia, he has now scored three goals in the last two games, means that he is quite capable of punishing Spurs even from the substitutes bench.

You can watch the goals at the top of the page by clicking on the video window.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Gallas close to fitness

By 1970's Gooner

The news coming out of the French camp just before the game against Scotland is that Gallas is getting close to being fit again. However France coach Raymod Domenech has said that he will have the final word on whether he takes part in the game.

Gallas has been injured since the 19th of August during the away game at Blackburn with a groin injury.

The original diagnosis was for a possible return to action in late September, early October.

He has not participated in the training sessions with France but had very light training with some floor exercises.

He was out of the game against Italy at the San Siro in Milan and it looks like he will be out of the game against Scotland as Domenech thinks it is too early for him to take part in such a highly competitive game.

"He will say if he is fit. Then I will decide if he is fit," Domenech said.

However if Galas is indeed getting near to fitness will another few days of rest and physiotherapy take care of his groin strain? This is getting too close to call as the derby game with Spurs is only a few days away next Saturday.

Wenger will have a big decision in front of him. There is the risk of playing an unfit Gallas (he has not played or touched a ball for four weeks) with the prospect of the injury recurring. He could of course ask Gilberto Silva to fight his jet lag and travel fatigue to fill in central defence once again.

Gilberto has been called up by Dunga, the Brazil coach, for two international friendlies against the USA which Brazil won 4-2 and against Mexico tonight.

But of course taking into account time differences and distances being what they are he will not be back to base until Friday afternoon. The Spurs kick off will be the next day at 1.30 pm

Senderos will be absent due to suspension and the other central defender, Djourou, has been sent out on loan to Birmingham.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

England will probably never be a world football power

By The Coach and 1970’s Gooner

Why is it that England has not excelled in the international arena since the 1966 World Cup which was held on home soil?

After this famous victory, the fortunes of England have followed mostly a downward direction.

For the next forty years the maximum the national team has achieved is to reach the semi finals of a major competition only three times:

the 1968 European Nations Cup (as it was called then), the World Cup in 1990 and six years after that, in 1996, in the European Championships, which were held in England.

Since then and in between the England national team has failed to progress beyond the quarter finals of any international tournament.

Why is this so?

The simple answer is of course that there have not been enough world class football players in England.

In our opinion the reason for this lies on the emphasis placed by society on several character related attributes, which in the end help to stifle any skills that a young player may possess.

These attributes, admirable as they are, concentrate more on the traditional English values of commitment, work ethos, effort and physical and mental strength.

All very important and very necessary elements in what makes a world class player.

But alas not sufficient.

By overemphasizing their importance, the most significant attribute that a footballer needs to succeed is ignored, or rather obstructed in its development: football skills.

All these character related attributes inevitably manifest themselves in all aspects of the English game.

In the way the players themselves play the game.

In the way English coaches encourage their players to conduct themselves on the pitch and in their choice of strategies and tactics for the games.

And in the way the referees interpret the laws

Part I was titled “Footballers lack flair and those that have it sacrifice it to conform”

Part II was titled: English coaches encourage the physical approach and adopt defensive tactics

This is the third article in a four part series where we look at each of the above in turn (the fourth part is the conclusion).

Part III:Referees help destroy the game

A lot of referees in England have probably never played football at a reasonable level, certainly not they way it’s meant to be played, or indeed were never good at it otherwise they would have never become referees!

They have certainly made attempts to adapt their approach to the interpretation of the rules; but we think not enough.

They still apply the rules in a manner that encourages the use of physical play.

This physical play usually takes the form of hard, vicious and dangerously sliding tackles.

They usually take both the ball and player; there is also a lot of pushing and pulling and “in your face marking” so as to intimidate rather than create.

These are a few of the examples that readily come to mind. Yet referees are loath to punish them as they are all considered part of the game. Yes, they are part of the English game. But not so much in those countries where they play the beautiful game.

This approach by the referees is taken advantage by a lot of teams as a means of stopping the more creative sides and elegant players from unfolding their skills on the field.

Also the so called football commentators use accepted slogans such as “football is a man’s game”, “it is shoulder to shoulder”, “good physical presence” and “use of upper body strength”.

These are just some of the clichés we hear almost every day.

Another one we hear very often, especially when they are commentating on games involving English teams abroad where there are foreign officials, is “that was never a foul”.

But as explained in our introduction this is the mentality that pervades throughout the football world in this country.

It is embedded in the psyche of the nation. You would not expect the referees to be any different.

They are however the most important of them all. More important than the players and the football coaches that we touched upon in this series of articles.

This is because their interpretation and enforcement of the rules sends THE most important signals to the participants whereby everyone adjusts their behaviour accordingly.

“Footballers lack flair and those that have it sacrifice it to conform”

English coaches encourage the physical approach and adopt defensive tactics

Gilberto’s international call up may leave a huge gap in Arsenal’s defence to face Spurs

England will probably never be a world football power

Monday, September 10, 2007

Eduardo Da Silva explodes for Croatia. Plus the goals on video

By 1970's Gooner

Croatia beat Estonia 2-0 at home on Saturday, courtesy of two excellent goals from Eduardo da Silva. Croatia are now top in Group E with Russia and England lying second and third respectively.

Eduardo showed what he is capable of doing in front of goal which is why Wenger after all paid 10m to buy him from Dinamo Zagreb over the summer.

He hasn’t produced this type of form yet for Arsenal but judging by these two goals he is quite capable of hitting double figures this season.

As his Croatia manager and ex West Ham player Bilic, intimated to Arsene Wenger, once he gets through the initial phase-in period he will “explode”

The striker scored with an overhead kick in the 39th minute from inside the box and again from a pass from Luka Modric, another reported target of Wenger’s, in first-half stoppage-time.

This was a spectacular left-foot shot into the top right corner from the edge of the penalty area proving he can score from outside the box too.

He has now scored eight goals for Croatia in this qualifying campaign. Let’s hope he continues this scoring spree in an Arsenal shirt.

You can watch the goals at the top of the page by clicking on the video window.

Would you welcome Dein back? Most of you would!

Bad news: Gallas is out, Gilberto is in

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Would you welcome Dein back? Most of you would!

By 1970's Gooner

There have been a lot of press columns written recently about David Dein’s collusion with Russian investors and his stated desire to reinstate his influence within Arsenal Football Club.

His major argument is that the face of English football is changing and clubs cannot now compete at the top unless there is massive investment in building the team up. The examples brought of course are those of Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool to name but a few.

Dein has proved consistent in this view of his as he was all for the American, Stan Kroenke, buying into the club.

But he was also, interestingly enough, against the decision to go ahead with the investment in the Emirates stadium. He preferred Arsenal to play at Wembley (probably in a co leasing agreement with Spurs).

His thinking behind this was that the investment that would have gone into the stadium would have placed a large financial burden on the club’s resources and starved the team of the necessary cash to invest in players. He has been proved right of course.

Where he has been proved wrong is on two counts.

The first is that the manager and close friend of his happens to have a very different ideology and vision about the playing future of the club:

“we make the stars not buy them”

Wenger has proved since he arrived at the club that you do not and should not need loads and loads of money to create a beautiful playing style with fantastic players in order to ultimately bring success to the club.

In fact when Wenger has bought big he has invariably failed in his signings. Wiltord (13m), Jeffers (8m), are the ones that first come to mind.

His philosophy is that real success is that which is achieved from within your own (financial) means and football nous.

It is that which is achieved by spotting unknown real gems from all the continents of this planet and instilling in them from a young age the correct footballing ethos and training them to play the beautiful game as the manager visualizes it.

There is a second and equally important reason why Dein is wrong.

If the new investor is a business person (or entity) as is the case with the investors at Manchester United, Liverpool and Aston Villa they are not going to sink their money in the club without wanting a decent return for their investment.

They may decide to be patient as to when this return is actually realised (as for example building and operating for profit a new stadium or adding more capacity) but they will eventually want a return for their money. You can be sure of that!

This is even made more imperative if, as is usually the case, they have borrowed the money to buy the club in the first place. And this applies even if they have personally put up the securities to borrow the money.

This is because they can always vote themselves more dividends from the club’s profits to finance the installments for their personal loans.

So in comparison to sticking with the same owners of the club rather than bringing in new ones there should be no contest.

The existing ones have made their investment a long long time before when their initial outlay was miniscule in comparison to what the new owners will now be paying (Dein initially paid 1.5m but received 75m for his shares!).

They have also not borrowed to make this investment so their dividend demands are more than likely to be minimal if non existent!

Yes you may get an initial massive investment from the new owners from their own money when they first come in. But will they be able to sustain this in the years to come when more and more money will be needed to maintain that level of success (if indeed success was achieved)?

It is of course another matter when the reasons for investing in a football club are not business related. Abramovic is not necessarily interested in making a profit and in theory this could result in the playing field becoming uneven in favour of the “lucky” club.

But when you look at it in the long term will Abramovic be there in five or ten year’s time? He has already begun to show signs of Chelsea fatigue.

If and when he departs Chelsea will not have the financial means to sustain the exorbitant salaries and transfer fees they are now paying.

And this will still hold even if, as they insist, he will leave a fund for Chelsea when he leaves. This money will eventually run out.

So an oligarch is not necessarily the answer. Living within your own means is an old saying which is very appropriate in the football world.

And Arsenal is the best placed team to put this into practice; because of Arsene Wenger. The greatest manager Arsenal Football Club have or are likely to ever have.

Fot this reason the results of the poll we set up to the question: “Would you welcome Dein back?” have to us been surprising.

We would have expected more resistance to Dein’s return. Because as we all know Dein’s return comes with luggage.

But it seems that Arsenal fans are no different than those of a lot of other clubs. They want success yesterday; patience is not one of our virtues!

Poll Results: “Would you welcome Dein back?

Total Votes cast: 457

Votes For: 276 60%

Votes Against: 181 40%

Thanks for your support, comments and votes.

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Bad news: Gallas is out, Gilberto is in

By 1970's Gooner

The news coming out of the French camp is that Gallas did not participate in the training session yesterday but had very light training with some floor exercises.

He is out of the game against Italy at the San Siro in Milan tonight.

He is not even on the bench which means that he is not yet getting anywhere near a come back.

His chances of making the North London derby which is a week away now appear slim.

Gallas has been injured since the 19th of August during the away game at Blackburn. The original diagnosis was for a possible return to action in late September, early October

The other bad news concerns a player who is fit and selected to play for his national side.

As first reported by “Arsenal Analysis” Gilberto has been called up by Dunga, the Brazil coach, for two international friendlies.

"Surprisingly" his call up was omitted from the list of players on international duty mentioned on Arsenal’s web site.

The first is to be played this coming Sunday 9th September in Chigaco against the USA and the Wednesday after that on the 12th September in Boston against Mexico.

He has already traveled to Chigaco to join up with his compatriots.

Gilberto will probably be traveling back to the UK after the Wednesday game.

But of course taking into account time differences and distances being what they are he will not be back to base until Friday afternoon. The Spurs kick off will be the next day at 1.30 pm.

This is because Wednesday in Boston is really early hours of Thursday morning in London.

Add to this the time taken to drive to the airport, flying time to London and driving time to get home at St Albans and Gilberto will probably not snuggle into his bed until Friday afternoon.

Wenger has in the past followed a policy of resting players after such long journeys due to jet lag and fatigue.

If he does he will be really short of central defenders as Gallas'chances of making it for the derby look slim and Senderos will be absent due to suspension. Djourou has been sent out on loan to Birmingham.