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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Arsenal’s transfer kitty is still bulging

By 1970's Gooner

Arsene’s dealings in the transfer market so far are creating very large surpluses of cash that are burning a big hole in his pockets. I calculate that net cash generated from transfers in and out since the window opened are as high as £26m!

They may soon find their way, I hope, on new signings. There's not many days left for the window to close afetr all.

First it was Henry’s sale to Barcelona then Ljumberg’s disposal to West ham and then Reyes’s transfer to Athletico Madrid. The latter for reportedly £8.1m which will bulge the kitty even more.

Arsenal have this annoying policy not to disclose transfer fees paid for players nor related financial arrangements such as players wages and other details. Quite shocking really considering that the company is quoted in one of London’s prestigious Stock Exchange Markets.

Nevertheless the original terms of Reyes’s transfer to Arsenal have been reported by the press at the time. The then 20-year-old winger was signed from Sevilla in a four-and-a-half-year deal worth up to £17.5m.

It was revealed that Arsenal would pay an initial £10.5m with £7m to follow depending on appearances and “add ons” conditional on Arsenal winning the Championship, domestic cups and the Champions League. I presume that Arsenal will have already paid the additional amounts agreed for Reyes’s appearances and for the trophies won during the time he grudgingly spent at Highbury.

We can therefore assume that there will be no significant amounts of money to go out from the £8.1m fee to be received from Real. On the other hand there will be no savings from his future salaries that Arsenal would have paid had he stayed on. The alternative to this transfer would have been another loan deal where his wages would have been met by the club taking him on.

Looking at the net cash generated from transfers in and out since the window opened I calculate that this kitty is as much as £26m!

Transfers in:

Sagna £10.1 (fee £7.5m plus wages for two years reported at £2.6m)
Dudu £10.6 (fee £8m plus wages for two years assumed at £2.6m)
Fabiansky £2.0m (wages not known but assumed not significant)
H Nordveit £2.0m (wages not known but assumed not significant)

Total £24.7

Transfers Out

J Aliadiãre £1.5m (wages not known but assumed not significant)
T Henry £ 29.0m (fee £16m plus wages for two years reported at £13m),
F Muamba £ 2.0m (wages not known but assumed not significant)
F. Ljungberg £10.2m (fee £3m plus wages for two years reported at £7.2m),
J. A Reyes £8.1m (no saving on wages assumed as explained above)

Total £50.8

In order to compare like for like this calculation takes into account not only the transfer fee but also two year’s salary to be paid for the players brought in and similarly the salary saved for the players transferred out. A two year horizon is chosen even if Henry’s contract had four years left because Ljumberg’s contract had two years remaining.

In a comment on a posting on the same subject it has been correctly pointed out to me that Henry’s merchandising income should also be factored out. This is difficult to gauge.

However account has to be taken that sales of shirts etc will in part be switched to other Arsenal favourite players. It has been reported that sales of shirts with Fabregas on the back were much more evident during the emirates Cup than before. In addition merchandising sales will go up due to the new players coming in like Eduardo for example.

Still it’s a bulging kitty which ever way you look at it. The question that begs itself is will Wenger buy any more players? The money is there!

Monday, July 30, 2007

Who will win the title? Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool or Arsenal. Analysis and Predictions - Part I: Arsenal

By 1970's Gooner

The bookies, as to be expected, have installed Man Utd as favourites to win the title again followed closely by Chelsea. Liverpool are priced at half of Arsenal’s odds and the rest, especially Spurs, are really nowhere. These are prices quoted at the time of writing this post.

Man Utd 11/8 Stan James
Chelsea 13/8 Ladbrokes
Liverpool 6/1 Betfred
Arsenal 12/1 Sporting Odds

For those interested Spurs are quoted at 100/1 by Stan James but Ladbrokes fancy them more at 66/1.

Most of the teams have not yet of course completed their annual summer retail therapy. But most of them, especially the top four, have made significant moves. More is still to come but the areas that teams need to strengthen are to me discernible enough.

In this four part series I try to analyse each of the top four’s strengths and weaknesses and based on the state of play so far try to come up with a reasonable prediction as to where they might end up by the end of next season.

Arsenal against the odds?

There are quite a lot of weaknesses that Arsene Wenger needs to address and rectify if Arsenal are to challenge seriously for honours next season. Many, many more than his closest rivals.

Fortunately they are all correctible as a lot of the changes needed involve a change of attitude or better coaching and organisation on the pitch rather than very radical surgery in the personnel (although they are needed too).

These include ( and take a deep breath) tightening up the defence, adopting the appropriate formation to suit the players at Wenger’s disposal (and I don’t mean 4 4 2), learning how to break up packed defences, killing teams off when on top, winning ugly if need be, buy at least one more quality player and lastly managing the impending takeover bid correctly. Not a lot is it?

For a more detailed analysis of these points check out my earlier postings: What does Arsenal need to do to challenge for next season? (Parts I & II)

Obviously Arsenal’s transfer policy should concentrate on correcting the glaring weaknesses of the past season. And it was very apparent that the team faced a real problem in scoring from open play and seriously lacked width; which affected the balance of the team on the pitch.

There are those who may maintain that with Eduardo’s arrival Arsenal may not need another forward. I beg to disagree.

The most obvious weakness in the forward line up of the current squad is that there is a distinct lack of experience. With Henry gone there are now only two relatively experienced players in Robin Van Persie and Adebayor. They are however only 23 and 22 respectively.

The addition of Eduardo to the squad (aged 24) does not of course do much to increase the average age and one has to allow for the dreaded adjustment period to Premiership football.

Not to mention Bendtner who is 19 and has not yet played in the Premiership! Or even Walcott who theoretically could play as a forward but for now is a wide player and is only 18!

Additionally account has to be taken of injury, suspensions, loss of form and the Africa Cup of Nations. Remember what happened last season when injuries to Henry and Van Persie in particular deprived the team of its two most lethal forwards.

Taking into account that Adebayor will be away at the ANC for about a month then it becomes obvious that the squad will lose serious depth.

Now if a premiership experienced forward with goalscoring ability was recruited (there is talk of Anelka again or someone like Kanute) then it suddenly gives a very attractive outlook on this Arsenal team and becomes an altogether different ball game.

For the wide midfield position, on the face of it, Wenger has two strategic options. Either he recruits a tried and tested winger who would of course have pace, dribbling ability and will not be afraid to shoot.

Or he “promotes from within” by moving Eboue to this position and utilising Bakary Sagna as a right back. Indeed Eboue has performed exceptionally well in the Emirates Cup. The rationality of this option is analysed in my posting “Is Wenger about to abandon his search for a wide midfielder?”

On the positive side of things all the young players have had a really good introduction to the Premiership and I would expect a vast improvement in their maturity and consistency levels. Something that was distinctly lacking last season.

Assuming the weaknesses listed above are addressed adequately, no more first team players are sold on and Wenger and the Board manage to steady the ship then I believe that Arsenal are one player away from being ready to mount a very realistic challenge for the title.

However these are all very brave and “courageous” assumptions as there is a quite a lot that needs to happen for all these conditions to materialise. There are in fact so many variables in Arsenal’s success equation that the probability of any or a combination of them becoming unstable cannot be discounted.

This is not to say that challenging for the title is an impossible task. But if Wenger succeeds then it will indeed be his greatest triumph!

Prediction: With an additional quality signing “surprising a lot of people and challenging for the title”. But as it stands a very close third place.


Transfer activity:

IN Eduardo da Silva (D Zagreb, £8m), L Fabianski (Legia Warsaw, £2m), H Nordveit (FK Haugesund, £2m), Bakary Sagna (Auxerre, initial £6m rising to £8m)

OUT J Aliadiãre (Middlesbrough, £1.5m), T Henry (Barcelona, £16.2m rising to £20.2m), M Poom (Watford, free), A Lupoli (Fiorentina, free), F Muamba (Birmingham City, undisclosed), M Connolly (Colchester, loan), Freddie Ljungberg (West Ham, £3m).

Part II:Liverpool.It's getting serious
Part III:Chelsea come back?
PartIV: Back to back for Manchester United?



Ed: You can leave a comment on what you think and also vote on the poll we have set up "who will win the title?"

Diarra Arsenal bound?

By 1970's Gooner

There’s no smoke without fire. First the Daily Mail and now Sky Sports are insisting that Lassana Diarra of Chelsea is close to agreeing a move to Arsenal. Sky Sports states that the two clubs are understood to be in talks over a deal.

It is reported that Diarra is disappointed at the lack of first team action last season and at the diminishing prospects of seeing some action this coming campaign. Diarra who is 22 started only seven games last season and made three substitute appearances.

He was brought in from French club Le Havre in 2005 as a natural replacement for Makelele. But Chelsea still have Makelele on their books who has now decided to see his contract out rather than move on. They also have Michael Essien, Steve Sidwell and John Obi Mikel so he obviously doesn’t see himself ahead of them in the pecking order.

But what is baffling is why he would want to come to Arsenal and even more surprising why Wenger would want to sign him!

The question begs itself when you look at the central midfielders at Wenger’s disposal: Fabregas, Diaby, Gilberto, Denilson, Flamini, and Song. In addition Djourou can be utilized in this position as he has been tried with success in the last game of the season at Portsmouth and even Toure can play there if need be.

Out of the six natural central midfielders only three at the most can play at the same time depending on the formation chosen and I rate Song, theoretically last in the pecking order, very highly.

I can only conclude that either there is no truth whatsoever in this rumor or that Wenger will soon be selling or loaning out one of the fringe midfielders in the squad.

By the process of elimination only Flamini and Song would be vulnerable. Flamini had an excellent game against Inter Milan in the Emirates Cup and has only recently agreed to remain at Arsenal.

On the other hand Song has been used out of position as a central defender in the friendlies in Austria and had a very good season at Charlton on loan. Is this about to be repeated?

Lassana Diarra Fact File

Date of Birth 10/03/1985
Place of Birth Paris, France
Nationality France
Height 1.73 m /5 ft 8 in
Weight 68 kg /10 st 10 lbs
Position Midfield

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Goals from crosses give hope for the coming season

By 1970’s Gooner

It’s usually the other way round. Arsenal dominate, fail to score and at the end fall to the sucker punch. This was the story of Arsenal last season and it repeated itself in the friendly against Salzburg in Austria a few days ago. This time for the Emirates Cup PSG dominated the game in the first half but wasted the good chances they created. Arsenal promptly took a couple of theirs and it was practically game over.

An interesting aspect of the two goals Arsenal scored is that they both came from high balls crossed into the box. Something unusual for Arsenal. The main reason was the presence of Bendtner who with his height and physical strength provided the outlet for such a tactic to be employed.

And it was noticeable that this was the intention from the beginning of the game as the midfielders and central defenders were all too willing to send the long ball in from deep onto young Nicklas head.

Fort the first goal he chested, what was to be an assist, onto Flamini’s path who promptly sliced it into the net from inside the penalty area. For the second he rose above everybody else to head a well taken corner by Denilson and then pushed the ball into the net from the resulting fallout. When was the last time Arsenal scored from a corner? I don’t remember!

Clearly this gives Arsenal another important option in their usual quest of trying to break up packed defences. The long ball from deep straight into the heart of the opposing defence does not give them enough time to reorganize and get everybody behind the ball.

Something that was happening all too often last season when Arsenal’s built up play was too concerned on weaving pretty patterns and as consequence rather slow.

Arsenal dominated the second half mainly because Wenger corrected the unbalance he had created by his team selection for the start of the game. The team had no width as two central midfielders, Diaby and Flamini, were played on the flanks. The knock on effect was that the central midfield was not at its usual best as Denilson, up to then, was not having the best of games.

This double negative was reversed when Diaby returned to his natural position. He then put in another strong performance. He is the new Vieira and even better! Hleb was also moved into a roaming role in midfield which helped Arsenal dominate even more.

The introduction of fast and penetrative wingers albeit Eboue and Clichy on either flank allowed Arsenal to be more thrustful and free flowing which pinned PSG back for most of the second half. This resulted in the creation of many chances and the penalty which was duly missed by Bendtner!

It looks to me that Eboue, who gave a very good performance on the wing will form part of the pool of players who Wenger will be considering for this position. Is Wenger about to abandon his search for another wide midfielder? The others will be Hleb, Walcott, Rosicky and Eduardo, especially if another forward is brought in before the deadline.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Arsenal’s line up against PSG in The Emirates Cup. Toure and Gallas both captains!

Arsenal’s team in their first game for the Emirates Cup against PSG includes Bendtner being paired up front with Robin Van Persie. It seems that Wenger is trying out different combinations of pairings for the forward positions to test the compatibility and chemistry between the players.

In the midfield Fabregas and Diaby continue the impressive partnership which performed so well against Salzburg in Austria. It seems that Wenger is obviously looking to make this pairing get used to each to each other as it would seem they will be playing together very often once the season starts. Especially since Gilberto will be starting his preseason much later than the rest of the squad.

But Wenger’s choice for the wide midfield positions are Denilson and Flamini. They are not going to give the team width are they? It looks like Wenger is trying to give everyone a game.

In defence Toure and Senderos will start and there is also a start for Sagna who came on as a substitute in the second half for the friendly in Austria. He will play at right back and Clichy returns at left back.Almunia starts in goal.

The interesting aspect about the captaincy is that Toure will captain the team in the first half and then Gallas will come on in the second and assume the captaincy. I am not for this sort of confusion in who is going to be the captain of the Club. He has to be one player and he has to be named by Wenger. Only in his absence should he then name the new captain for the day. A kind of vice captain. Just like it is for the penalty takers in a team.

It seems to me that Wenger has invented this multi captaincy format purely to pamper Gallas who has made angry noises at the state of things with the club recently. Enough of this I say. If Gallas is not happy then get him out.

It is interesting to note that both the previous Arsenal captains were given the arm band in order to appease them. They both eventually left the club!

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Arsenal haven’t learned from last season’s mistakes

By 1970's Gooner on the friendly game at Salzburg

It was like watching one of the many games that Arsenal played last season. Domination throughout the pitch, playing the beautiful fame but lacking penetrative threat up front with no killer instinct when needed. And finally making mistakes at the back which allowed the inferior opposition to steal an unexpected win. Heard that one before haven’t you?

Granted there were several “first team” players missing from the Arsenal line up like Fabregas, Silva and Adebayor and the opponents were already several games into their domestic league. But it was obvious that even if those players had graced the game with their presence we still would have witnessed a dej a vu with a repeat of last season’s follies.

The most important ones being the inability to convert the numerous chances created so that they could have killed the game off and the lack of defencive nous. It’s one thing not scoring but when you can’t keep a clean sheet then a respectable draw turns into a painful defeat.

If Wenger will not enter the market to recruit a proven premiership experienced goal scorer who will be able to take a small percentage of the chances created then the onus will fall on Van Persie, Adebyaor and Eduardo. I personally don’t see the first two being so prolific in front of goal although I would expect that their improvement will be very marked this season.

Eduardo on the other hand impressed with his technical prowess, pace, acceleration and positioning awareness. I liked him. But he couldn’t put the ball in the net.

He opted to take one more touch rather than pull the trigger. Yes I know it was only his first game with his new club and he is bound to get better with more games. Let’s hope he is the answer to our prayers because that is where there is ample room for improvement.

On the defencive front, as explained in other postings, (what does Arsenal need to do to challenge for next season?) the errors that seem to be recurring can only be cut out by better organization and awareness. But annoyingly it doesn't look like they will be cut out do they?

The only time the opponents got a sniff of a chance was when there were lapses of concentration. In the first half by young Traore and by the older Gallas.

The goal itself came from two successive errors; first from the central defensive pair who got too near each other in trying to cut out a cross thus exposing Hoyte who had to come inside. And although near, Hleb’s lack of awareness to cover for Hoyte.

As explained in my previous posting, “Salzburg v Arsenal 1- 0. Diaby is the new Vieira and even better” apart from Eduardo’s promising debut the shining light from this friendly was Diaby’s performance which was awesome.

Salzburg v Arsenal 1-0. Diaby is the new Vieira and even better

By 1970's Gooner

Never the mind the defeat. It was only a friendly and Arsenal played some beautiful football albeit without penetration again. But more on the game in a later posting. What has inspired me is Diaby’s performance. He is the new Vieira and even better.

Until he was substituted in the middle of the second half, he was immense, running the game from the central midfield position with power, determination and an overall presence that points to a very exciting season for him and for Arsenal.

He is of course built and looks like a young Vieira but he is in my opinion a more skillful player. He was not only making tackles in front of his defence, he was taking the ball forward with pace, transforming defence into attack in seconds. Just like Vieira used to do.

There was one instance when he won the ball in the central midfield position and took it forward in a strong run, passed several opponents ending up right into Salzburg’s penalty area. His cut back was intercepted by the goalkeeper.

Fantastic play from a box to box galactico in the making! You can watch some video clips of Diaby on the video window which shows him in action at the age of 13.

It’s a pity that Arsenal are not yet playing that quick counter attacking football they used to. If they do again this year then Diaby will be even more effective.

He has Viera’s temperament in that he gets carried away with his desire to stop the opponents. And by utilising his long legs he sometimes tackles from a distance which can of course look bad when the tackle is slightly mistimed.

He will get a lot of bookings next season, like the one he got in this friendly game, but I don’t see him getting as many reds as Vieira did in his earlier years.

Wenger simply has to start with Diaby in every game next season and this may point to a three pronged central midfield of Fabregas, Silva and Diaby unless the captain drops to the bench; which I don’t see happening. All this implies that the formation next season is more likely to be a 4 3 3 or even a 4 5 1 depending on the occasion.

Vassiriki Abou Diaby Fact File

Date of Birth 11th may 1986
Place of Birth Paris, France
Nationality France
Height 1.88 m /6 ft 2 in
Weight 78 kg /12 st 4 lbs
Position Midfield
Squad No 2

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Ljumberg and Henry to greener pastures or barren fields?

By 1970’s Gooner

Ljumberg and Henry are the latest in a line of Arsenal stars to depart from that incredible team that was to be appropriately named the “Invincibles”.

But will they ‘fade to grey’ as has Vieira or a lot of other ex Arsenal stars who dared venture to pastures on seemingly greener grass across the pond?


Like some of the bigger names: Anelka, Petit, Overmars, Vieira, Edu, Pires.

Being released by Wenger does not of course, one may argue, necessarily stigmatize a player as a failure who will not again reach the dizzy heights of football perfection.

However, I tend to think so. And there are, I think, obvious reasons for this.

Wenger grooms the players for the position that suits them best and they therefore have every chance of achieving high levels of excellence. Remember Henry was a winger when he arrived at Arsenal and wasn’t himself sure if he was cut out to be a forward.

Wenger also organizes the team’s tactics and way of play to fit the players’ skills, motivates them superbly through his man management skills and creates a loyalty factor which is second to none.

But of equal importance is Wenger’s ability to match his obvious football sense with his financial nous. And by this I mean that he knows when it is time to let a player go.

This is when the price they will fetch is at or above their football worth to the club; and this usually comes after he has squeezed the most tasteful and potent part of their football juice.

This philosophy is greatly aided of course by his policy of buying young, unknown, hungry and talented players from all over the world. Getting their best years out of them and then selling them off at a high profit so that he can move on to the next world star in the making (will Cesc Fabregas be the next?).

It sounds a bit ruthless but modern day football is absolutely that and if you ignore the economics then you do so at your own peril.

Let’s take Ljumberg’s case.

I think it is obvious that Freddie has gone beyond his peak. He has lost his pace and with this his ability to go past defenders and provide the width that Arsenal desperately needed last season.

As a result his goal scoring ability which undoubtedly was one of his strongest assets has gone. Now how West Ham will be able to utilize Ljumberg effectively is beyond me. It looks to me that he will prove to be a very expensive flop for Curbishley.

Wenger got a tremendous output from the player’s nine years at Arsenal and at an initial transfer price of only £3.5m.

So it is no surprise that the £2m (rising to £3m) that Arsenal will receive for his transfer to West Ham was, I presume, snapped out of Eggy’s hand before he could have time to think about it again!

And the bonus is that Arsenal will be saving about £70,000 per week in wages or another £3.6m per annum! Since Freddie had another two years of his contract left then the saving on his wages is about £7.2m.

If you add the transfer fee of £2m then the total “income” from Freddie’s transfer will rise to almost £9m! Now this is what I call “good business”.

For more on the surpluses created by Arsene’s transfers see my posting: “Wenger’s transfer activity runs large profits and bulges the transfer kitty”

Let’s turn to Henry.

My basic argument (which I also expressed in other postings) is that he will not be the same player for Barcelona as when he was playing for Wenger at Arsenal.

The most obvious reason is the way Wenger sets up his teams and their style of play which is to always use the front man as the pivot of the attack and set the team up to always play in a way always suited to Henry’s style. This invariably culminates in providing the scoring opportunity for the centre forward.

Will he get this at Barcelona? Especially when they have so many other stars in their line up all wanting the lime light and a piece of the action? I don’t think so.

Also, how will Barcelona themselves tactically accommodate four superstars in their line up with all playing in the more creative forward positions? They have Ronaldinho, Eto’o, Messi and now Henry.

Henry, as has been proved before in his displays for France, when he was paired with Trezeguet, cannot be as effective with another forward next to him. It crowds him out.
Barcelona’s style of play depends on quick passing and movement and for this to happen the players need space. Something that will become a very rare commodity if all four of them play.

Four into three don’t go! Someone will have to stay on the bench.

There is also another important reason why I think that Henry is likely to find that the grass is not greener elsewhere. His age. At 29 going to 30 he is indeed entering that age where fitness and injuries will come more into the fore. And who is to say that Wenger has not consulted Henry’s stats and ergometric data in making his decision to let him go.

At £16.5m plus a saving of £6.5m a year salary for the next four years may prove good business again!

Monday, July 16, 2007

Rodrigo Palacio. The front man missing from the post Henry puzzle? Plus video clips.

By 1970's Gooner

I did insist that Arsenal needed to recruit an out and out striker; and that Da Silva wasn't enough. He is a good goalscorer but he cannot lead the line that effectively from the front due to his size.

In order to utilise the three fantastic midfielders at Arsene's disposal (Silva, Cesc and Diaby) Arsenal's preferred formation will be either 4 3 3 or 4 5 1.The front man therefore will play a very important role at the top of the formation. And it seems that Wenger will go for the Argentinian Rodrigo Palacio of Boca Juniors.

He has a very good goals to games ratio of 0.5 or 39 goal in 79 games. And as you can see from the video clips he can score all type of goals: from long distance, inside the box, tap ins and headers too!

And he is at 25 not a typical Arsene signing as he is not a kid with potential (!) and is experienced enough to slot straight into the team. He will need of course time to get used to the Premiership.

Oh and he will, apparently, wear the No 14 shirt!

He will be, I hope, the front man missing from the post Henry puzzle.

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Unlike Reyes, Wenger doesn’t mind the weather. So is he staying?

By 1970's Gooner

My take of the Wenger interview on Sky is that he is more likely to stay at Arsenal football Club beyond his current contract rather than go!

All the newspapers and other electronic media have followed Sky’s spin on what the Arsenal manager said after the friendly game at Barnet (Arsenal won 2 – 0 Adebayor and Nacer Bazarite the scorers. You can watch the goals on the video window!)

Asked if he thought he would stay beyond his existing contract, he told Sky Sports News: "I have shown my commitment in the past."

Pressed on whether that meant he would be staying, he added:

"I will come out at the right moment... maybe when you don't ask me the question but I am not bothered about the English weather…..”! (you can listen to part of the interview on the video window)

The last reference to the weather was not reported by Sky.

Now what the hell has this got to do with whether he is staying or going you may well ask?

Well, the interviewer prior to asking him about his own intentions, asked about Reyes’s future.

Wenger, who was in a jovial mood, joked that Reyes wanted to leave because he didn’t like the rain and the English weather in general. And that he (Wenger) couldn’t change that for him!

And that’s why when asked about his own commitment Wenger, after saying "I will come out at the right moment" added “but I am not bothered about the English weather…..”!

I choose to interpret this as a positive sign.

It has been reported that a new deal is already on the table for him. I feel that the Board will not have gone into the trouble of drawing up a new set of terms and a contract if they did not feel that their chances of succeeding were good.

Wenger will not say anything about his future on a Saturday afternoon after a friendly match standing in front of a camera on the side of an empty pitch. He will want to do it properly at a press conference at the Emirates.

When he chooses.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Bakari Sagna in action. Video clip (for only 25 seconds)!

This is what I could find of Bakari Sagna in action.

He shows some really nice skills on the ball for a right back but as you will also see he can tackle too. A nice combination.



You only have to concentrate for the first 25 seconds though as the video contains clips of other players after that.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Wenger’s transfer activity runs large profits and bulges the transfer kitty.

Excellent news coming out of Arsenal. And it is not only from the footballing side. Wenger, remember, has an economics degree and he is not one to ignore the financial side of the football business.

Sagna apparently has undergone a medical and is set to join for £7.5m. His pay will be £25,000 per week which translates to £1.3m a year.

But at the same time Freddie Ljumberg is finally set to join Fiorentina for, wait for it, £5.5m and Arsenal will be saving about £70,000 per week in wages or another £3.6m per annum! Since Freddie had another two years of his contract left then the saving on his wages is about £7.2m.

If you add the transfer fee of £5.5m then the total “income” from Freddie’s transfer will rise to almost £12.7m! Now this is what I call “good business”. Let’s hope it goes through.

If the Sagna deal goes through then the outlay for transfers so far will be as follows:

Dudu £8m
Sagna £7.5
Fabiansky £2m
H Nordveit £2m
Salaries for the above over the next two years: about £6m
(although I am not aware of Dudu’s salary I have assumed that it will be similar to Sagna’s and I have also added another £0.8m for the rest)
Total : £25.5m.

But if you look at transfer activity out of Arsenal then Wenger is very much in the black.

First and foremost is the huge saving on Henry’s transfer which amounts to £29m!

This includes the transfer fee received at £16m and the salary saved at £13m over the next two years (I chose two years so that a comparison could be made with the saving on Freddie’s salary which had two years to run).

Freddie’s departure will save another £12.7m as explained above.

But wait there are also the transfers of J Aliadiãre and F Muamba adding about another £4m in total.

If my arithmetic is right then total savings (over the next two years) from transfer activity out of Arsenal will come to a staggering £45.7m!

And an outlay so far (inclusive of the Sagna deal) of only £25.5m.

A profit of about £20m (and this doesn’t include the probable £6m to £8m that the sale of Reyes to Real Madrid will fetch!).

Add to this profit the £40m transfer kitty available to Wenger and you have a staggering £60m to spend on new players.

Come on Mr Wenger lets get some more retail therapy. We need it.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Sagna in London for talks. Martins at £13m also Arsenal bound?

Some good news at last.

The Independent reports that Bakari Sagna was due last night in London to talk terms after Arsenal agreed terms with Auxerre.

The fee is believed to be in the region of £7.5m. Apparently Sagna will sign a five-year contract and his wages will be about £25,000 a week.

Wenger may be interested in buying additional cover when Eboue will be away at the Africa Nations Cup. This will be an expensive cover at £7.5m and judging by how frugal Wenger is with Arsenal’s cash this may not be the only reason why Sagna is interesting him.

There is a possibility that Wenger will “promote from within” with Eboue being pushed forward to the right midfield position. This may mean that Wenger will not sign another wide player.

It is also reported that Arsenal may trigger the buy out clause in Martins’s contract with Newcastle which is set at £13m. Apparently Newcastle are resigned to losing him as he is dissatisfied with his current 60,000 a week package (he wants parity with Owen who is on 100,000 a week!). I am not sure if Wenger and the Board will actually go that far and agree to this compensation package.

However Martins has pace and given the opportunities he will get you goals. But he is also relatively young at 23 (next October if his birth certificate is to be believed) and I don’t really see him as a centre forward. He is more a winger or an inside forward playing off the centre forward.

Nevertheless if these reports are true then it seems that Wenger will not go for the traditional centre forward but opt for short and pacy front men (like Eduardo Da Silva) who will offer more options and flexibility.

If these two transfers actually go through then I feel that they will go a long way to ease the fears of many Arsenal fans that the team is lagging behind their main rivals in the transfer market.

Will they ease Gallas’s fears though?

Monday, July 09, 2007

An open letter to Gallas: Shut the hell up or get out.

Dear William,

We all read your comments on your personal web site (with the help of translators). And to be truthful there is a lot of merit in what you are saying.

We are all concerned about the future of Arsenal Football Club and especially that of Wenger who has said he will not at the moment commit himself to the club beyond the end of his current contract.

We are all concerned that other clubs are sniffing around to poach some of our best players, like Fabregas, especially now they have sensed that we are vulnerable after our talisman and greatest player moved on.

We are all also concerned with the relative lack of activity in the transfer market especially when our rivals are breaking the bank to recruit the best players around.

Liverpool splashed out a total of 40m so far, Manchester United close to 50m and counting and Chelsea are now opening their vast purse with a bid for Malouda for 14m and still counting. And Wenger still persists with recruiting young and unknown players no one has ever heard off. Total outlay so far a miserly 10m! Hell even Spurs have spent more than Arsenal!

We are all concerned that the team, although showing great promise, is still littered with relatively inexperienced young players who exhibit all those annoying characteristics of being brilliant one game and distinctly lacking the next.

We do of course understand that at this stage of your career you would want to play in a team challenging for the top both domestically and in the European competitions. And you may feel that this Arsenal team may not get there in time for you. I disagree with you but what matters is what you think.

And you are right to want to meet with Wenger next Wednesday to discuss his plans for the future and how we are going to challenge for the top and not for third place again. We would all want to do that. You can of course.

What we don’t understand is why you would want to go public with such hurtful comments which serve no purpose but to destabilise even further the players and Arsenal Football Club.

What we don’t understand is why the hell couldn’t you wait to meet with Wenger first before spouting your mouth out.

And then if you find you are not satisfied ask for a transfer and get the hell out.

Best regards and good luck with your new employers.


1970’s Gooner

Sunday, July 08, 2007

Arsenal set to sign Bakari Sagna?

By 1970’s Gooner

According to the Sunday Mirror, Arsene is about to increase his summer’s transfer outlay to £15.5m with the imminent addition of the Auxerre right back Bakari Sagna. He is likely to cost £7.5m and this price seems to be the compromise reached with the president of Auxerre Gerard Bourgoin who hinted only last week that there were a few things left to agree with Arsenal before the transfer went through.

"Sagna has a deep desire to play in England and he genuinely wants to wear the Arsenal shirt. They seem keen to sign him as well. The conditions for him to leave have not all been met — at least for the time being."

Apparently Sagna will sign a five-year contract and his wages will be about £25,000 a week.

But isn’t Wenger concentrating at the wrong end of the pitch? Shouldn’t he be utilizing his energy and available cash in recruiting another forward and a wide midfield player instead?

Wenger may be interested in buying additional cover when Eboue will be away at the Africa Nations Cup. I think however that this will be an expensive cover at £7.5m and judging by how frugal Wenger is with Arsenal’s cash we just do not see this as being the main reason why Sagna is interesting him.

There is a possibility that Wenger will “promote from within”. Eboue could be pushed forward to the right midfield position as he has been tried by Wenger on a few occasions in the latter stages of last season’s campaign. Notably against Portsmouth, Manchester Utd and Chelsea with good effect.

Let's hope this proves to be another inspired signing by Wenger who has the ability to sign relatively unknown players who under his tutelage rise to stardom.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

What’s Wenger’s next move?

By 1970's Gooner

It was a huge relief for all gooners when Dudu’s transfer was announced out of the blue. And the intensity of the elation was I think much more elevated as it came after the shock news of the departure of the club’s talisman.

But amidst all the frenzy of getting to know the new player we forgot that he was brought in as a replacement for the loss of a forward. In real terms there has not been any net addition to the squad. There are we hope more transfers to come.

Obviously Arsenal’s transfer policy should concentrate on correcting the glaring weaknesses of the past season. And it was very apparent that the team faced a real problem in scoring from open play and seriously lacked width.

Let’s look at the forward position first.

There are those who may maintain that with Dudu’s arrival Arsenal may not need another forward. I beg to disagree.

The most obvious weakness in the forward line up of the current squad is that there is a distinct lack of experience. With Henry gone there are now only two relatively experienced players in Robin Van Persie and Adebayor. They are however only 24 and 22 respectively.

Not to mention Bendtner who is 19 and has not yet played in the Premiership! Or even Walcott who theoretically could play as a forward but for now is a wide player and is only 18!

The addition of Dudu to the squad (aged 24) does not of course do much to increase the average age and one has to allow for the dreaded adjustment period to Premiership football.

Additionally account has to be taken of injury, suspensions, loss of form and the Africa Cup of Nations. Remember what happened last season when injuries to Henry and Van Persie in particular deprived the team of its two most lethal forwards.

Taking into account that Adebayor will be away at the ANC for about a month then it becomes obvious that the squad will lose serious depth.

It’s not as though “we can wing it” and take a chance that none of these things will happen (injuries, suspensions and loss of form) and that Adebayor would not be missed. You would in fact be taking a big gamble. And with the competitive nature of the Premiership rising substantially this coming season you can not afford the merest of slips as we would be playing catch up all the time.

Remember the period when Terry got injured. That’s when Chelsea lost the title. And since the Arsenal team is littered with inexperience, heads and confidence drop that more easily.

The ideal for Arsenal would be to recruit another forward who will be a little bit more experienced and Premiership hardened.

There are reports that Arsenal are interested in Martins who knows the Premiership. He has pace and given the opportunities he will get you goals. But he is also relatively young at 23 (next October if his birth certificate is to be believed) and I don’t really see him as a centre forward. He is more a winger or an inside forward playing off the centre forward.

At the moment, in the absence of Henry, only Adebayor can perform this role. Robin Van Persie could be trained to do it but he is much more effective playing off a centre forward or occupying a wide position in a 4 3 3 or 4 5 1 formation as he was deployed last season.

And in my opinion these are the formations that Wenger will consider adopting as they offer, among other benefits, the opportunity to include all the three excellent central midfielders that are now available: Fabregas, Gilberto Silva and the exciting Diaby.

If Arsenal are serious about challenging for honours next season then I would expect, and it would be pretty exciting, for Wenger to come up with another signing for this position who would be experienced and old enough to supplement the existing forward line.

Now let’s look at the wide midfield position.

Here, on the face of it, Wenger has two strategic options. Either he goes for a tried and tested winger who would of course have pace, dribbling ability and will not be afraid to shoot.

Or he “promotes from within” by moving Eboue to this position and signing another right back. Like Bakiri Sagna. The rationality of the latter option is analysed in my posting “Is Wenger about to abandon his search for a wide midfielder?”

But there could be another option. The “stingy one”. Just stick with signing another forward. This is because of the flexibility added to the squad by Dudu who can play both as a central striker and a wide midfielder.

As Wenger has stated: “He is a very good finisher and although he is predominantly a striker, he is a very adaptable player”

In this way Wenger will only need to sign one more player, preserve Arsenal’s scarce financial resources and allow his young prodigies more room to grow (for more on this thinking check out my posting :Arsenal need two but may sign only one player).

I wander what Wenger's next move will be.

I hope he makes one.

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

He can run, he can jump and most of all he can score. Good bye Thierry Henry hello Eduardo Da Silva.

You would have expected Wenger to pull another one out of the bag. We all suspected that Wenger would have gone for a relatively unknown, youngish but hungry player.

He is a 24 year old Croatian international who having immigrated to Croatia from Brazil at the age of 15 has managed to assimilate the Croatian way of playing football, (strong, fast and direct) with his very apparent Brasilian innate skills of playing the beautiful game. And what a combination this is.

Have a look at the video clips we have assembled for you in the video window (or if you are reading this elsewhere check out our site "Arsenal Analysis")

A goal scoring record of 34 goals in 32 games this campaign (and 71 in 100 appearances for Dinamo) is very impressive albeit of course in the Croatian League. However, for those doubting Thomases, he has turned it on in the European stage with crucial goals for Croatia notably the goal against England in their 2-0 victory.

Now, that should tell you a lot about his quality as it was scored with his head going up against John Terry. He has scored 7 in 12 games for Croatia inclusive of a hat trick away against Israel.

But this does not tell you the whole story. He is a left footed player who knows where the goal posts are. He does not mess about. If there is a chance for a goal scoring opportunity he will go for it.

He is not one to try and play the ball about or dilly dally in front of goal as some of the Arsenal players have been doing this past season who played “pass the buck”. He can also score with his head and that will be a welcome addition to Arsenal’s armoury.

But he also seems to possess pace and he gets a lot of his goals from making deep runs against the defence by latching on to through passes from the midfielders.

Much like a young Freddie Ljumberg used to do. Cesc Fabregas will have a wonderful outlet for his outstanding ability to pick defence splitting passes.

Da Silva already looks to me as an Arsenal type of player.

And as he can play both as a central striker and a wide midfielder his signing adds a lot of flexibility in the squad.

It remains to be seen whether the fee rumoured to have been agreed, €24m (the same as the fee received for Henry) will in the end be justified or if indeed it is the correct one. Having presumably been identified by Wenger as just “what the doctor ordered” may however be an indication of the player’s ability and worth.

Ed: The BBC "understands" that the fee agreed is set at £7.5m and not £16.1m!

I believe that with Arsenal's record in the past it should indeed adopt a policy of full transparency with regard to transfers.

The news coming out of Auxerre seem to indicate that Bakiri Sagna will be the next signing at right back thus releasing Eboue to fill the other vacancy of the wide midfielder (Is Wenger about to abandon his search for a wide midfielder?).

And that will probably close Wenger’s shopping for this window.

By 1970's Gooner