Will Henry succeed at Barcelona?

There is a lot happening on the Henry saga with regard to will he go or will he stay etc. It is almost a carbon copy of the Vieira departure which started about a year earlier than his eventual departure.

Consider the following: Henry states only a week ago “I am an Arsenal player…. for now…” His agent denies claims he met with Barca officials. Meanwhile Thuram gets a call from Henry sounding him out on how life is at Barca and in Spain.

And almost simultaneously it is reported that Wenger has met with Barca to discuss the move! Finally Edelman, from the Arsenal Board, states that they will follow Arsene’s decision on the matter!

But most important of all Wenger himself has not denied that he met the Barca officials!

But if Henry is leaving Arsenal will he ‘fade to grey’ as has Vieira or a lot of other ex Arsenal stars who dared venture to pasture on seemingly greener grass across the pond? Like some of the bigger names: Anelka, Petit, Overmars, Vieira, Edu, Pires.

Being released by Wenger does not of course, one may argue, necessarily stigmatize a player as a failure who will not again reach the dizzy heights of football perfection.

However, we tend to think so. And there are, to us, obvious reasons for this.

Wenger grooms the players for the position that suits them best and they therefore have every chance of excelling. Remember Henry was a winger when he arrived at Arsenal and wasn’t himself sure if he was cut out to be a forward.

But more importantly he organizes the team’s tactics and way of play to fit the players skills, motivates them superbly through his man management skills and creates a loyalty factor which is second to none.

Let’s take Henry’s case: We believe that he will not be the same player for Barca as when he was playing for Wenger at Arsenal.

The most obvious reason is the way Wenger sets up his teams and their style of play which is to always use the front man as the pivot of the attack. This invariably culminates in providing the scoring opportunity for the centre forward. Will he get this at Barca?

Will their coach, whoever he may be, adjust the team’s style and their mentality to suit Henry’s way of playing and allow him to be the main man? Especially when they have so many other stars in their line up all wanting the lime light and a piece of the action?

Secondly how will Barca themselves tactically accommodate four superstars in their line up? If Eto’o is not allowed to go they will have Ronaldinho, Eto’o, Messi and now Henry. They may play 4 4 2 with Henry and Eto’o up front and the other two on the wings. It sounds good but we don’t think this is the way to go!

Henry as has been proved before in his displays for France, when he was paired with Trezeguet, cannot be as effective with another forward next to him. It crowds him out. It is not a surprise that Wenger has very rarely played a straight 4 4 2 formation when Henry was in the team.

If they choose to play 4 4 1 1 (with Eto’o and Henry in the more forward positions) do you see Ronaldinho and Messi tracking back to defend as this system demands? And if they play 4 3 3 their defensive midfield options are severely compromised.

Barca’s style of play also depends on quick passing and movement and for this to happen the players need space. Something that will become a very rare commodity if all four of them play.

A way to avoid these problems is if they let Eto’o go. And this may prove a blessing in disguise for Arsenal as Eto’o at 26 is a much fitter and hungrier player than Henry and with a much better goal average at 12 goals in 16 appearances! He will do very well at Arsenal.

Arsenal Analysis has argued before that there is too much reliance placed on Henry by Arsenal and it was about time to reduce this imbalance (Waiting for Godot).

There are two more reasons why we think that Henry is likely to find that the grass is not greener elsewhere. The first is his age. At 29 going to 30 he is indeed entering that age where fitness and injuries will come more into the fore.

There must be some niggling thoughts at the back of Wenger’s mind that may be Henry is beginning to lose his pace due to age and not because of injury. He is after all entering that stage in his career at 29 where this indeed may begin to show.

And if indeed Henry has expressed a desire to leave then Wenger may have decided to cut his losses and go for the money and/or Eto’o. Will Henry regain his fitness? (Henry for Barcelona).

And this brings us to our last point which is to do with Henry’s personal situation. For him to be effective on the field his personal life has to be settled. Will he and his family settle in Spain? Learn a new language and a new way of life? In addition to getting used to his new team surroundings? And if all this takes him a season to settle in will he be as fit as when he was 29?

The downside to this is the psychological impact that his departure will have on the other players who have only recently managed to get over Vieira’s exodus.

Why are Henry, Fabregas, Silva, Rosicky and Djourou speaking out at the same time?

It’s déjà vu! For another year instead of being linked with players to come into the team our best players are touted around Europe. But for the first time I am not unhappy about it! There is logic behind my madness.

Arsenal Analysis resident season ticket holder at the Emirates, South Stand: Row 5 has an explanation for the recent comments made by some of the Arsenal pros.

Thierry Henry speaks out or comes out?

Thierry Henry has over the last few years been linked with all the top European clubs. However never in the past has he openly spoken against the club or gave any indication that he wanted to go.

Even last year when he was very close to joining Barca all he said was that he needs time to make his mind up. For the first time this year he is openly talking about his dissatisfaction for some of the staff going on and how Dein was so important to the club.

However, Henry is well aware that if he goes to any other club in Europe, the whole team will not necessarily be set up around him. At Arsenal Wenger provides him with all the tools to showcase his talent to the full. I am not sure that that would happen elsewhere.

And he knows that without Wenger he might not be as good a player as he is now. Arsenal Analysis in a recent post “Henry for Barcelona” argued that there are strong reasons for Henry to stay at Arsenal. I don’t for one moment think that he is seriously thinking of leaving.

If this is so why is he allowing some doubt to creep in? Is it intentional?

Cesc will stay if Wenger stays

Last year Cesk signed a new 8-year contract. I don’t believe for a second that he agreed the new deal without being given some assurances that Wenger would be at the club for at least a significant part of that contract.

Wenger is the best coach of young talent of the world. If he leaves now Cesk might never fulfil the early hype. It is no wonder then that Cesk has said that if Wenger were leaving then he would probably do the same.

Is this a threat aimed at the Board?

Not only that but Rosicky, Gilberto and now Djourou almost in tandem are coming out stressing the importance of the coach and the captain remaining at the club.

You don’t normally see these kind of comments coming out from a club’s senior (and not so senior in the case of Djourou) players.

Are all these comments somehow connected?

I think all the noises coming out are simply some muscle flexing by some of the pros at the club’s playing side. It looks as they are trying to make sure that the Board understands that without Wenger and the talent he has assembled, the club is in danger, especially with the debt that they have taken on to fund the new stadium.

If standards on the field drop then they won’t be able to charge the same high prices or sell out the stadium. And the servicing of the large stadium debt will be jeopardised.

In other words are these players sending a message to the Board to get it together and see some sense? To take it a step further, are they trying to pave the way for the return of the Wenger and Dein show?

The long term success of the club depends on Wenger staying at Arsenal until at least 2011 and the return of Dein may indeed be connected.

Malouda for Arsenal?

The story that is breaking at the moment is that Arsenal are about to scupper Liverpool’s chances of signing Malouda. If it is just press gossip or rumor it is a well thought out one.

From what we have seen of his style of play and taking into account his other stats he indeed possesses those characteristics and is the type of player that might interest Wenger.

The first step in the decision making process is whether of course there is a need for a player in that position, then it’s a matter of the player’s technical and physical ability and then if the player fits these it’s his character.

After all these criteria are satisfied the price plays a major role. And for Wenger if the price does not represent what he thinks is the real value for that player then he may not go for it. He is just as happy to stay with what he has!

We thought this might happen with Ribery when Bayern’s money from the sale of Hargreaves came on stream (Arsenal close to Ribery but not to Bellamy or Reo Coker)

Malouda, who was voted as France’s player of the year, is a left sided wide midfielder and we think possesses enough skill to satisfy Wenger that he can fill that vacancy that has been accepted by many Arsenal supporters and other Arsenal blogs (inclusive of Arsenal Analysis – Arsene. Who to buy?) as waiting to be filled.

He is a strong and pacy winger who also possesses physical strength. This will fit in well with the demands of the Premiership, an area where both Rosicky and especially Hleb have found it difficult to adapt.

And at six foot he is tall enough to provide an aerial threat to opposing defences. However on the negative side he will need a period of adjustment as all foreign players do.

His goalscoring record is good for a wide midfielder when compared to the other so called targets for Arsenal. 10 goals scored in 27 starts. A percentage of 35% or a goal scored every two and a half games. Not as high as Pires’s which was 14 in 33 (42%) during his last season with Arsenal.

However even if Malouda’s eight substitute appearances are factored in he still has a higher goal scoring percentage (28%) than Ribery who has scored 5 in 25 (or 25%) or even Quaresma’s 23% or Babel’s 20% (who reports say has not impressed Wenger).

Comparisons are of course difficult as consideration has to be given to other factors that affect a player’s performance such as the quality of the league he is playing in, of his team mates and of course injuries.

Is he young enough though? We all know that Wenger likes them to be of an impressionable age. Well at 27 he is neither too young nor too old in footballing terms. At this age most footballers can blend relative youthfulness along with maturity and experience. And isn’t this what is sorely missing from an experience depleted squad such as Arsenal’s?

As far as his character is concerned we can only assume that Wenger would have made a few discreet enquiries, especially from his friend Mr. Houlier, the departing Lyon manager.

It appears then, that if the press reports are right, Wenger would be trying to negotiate the last hurdle in his quest to satisfy the criteria mentioned above: the price!

Apparently the 8m that Liverpool were offering will now, with Wenger’s intervention, probably rise to 10m which might be Wenger’s limit. If Lyon want more will Wenger respond or will he walk away?

Should Wenger consider resigning Anelka?

Nicolas Anelka scored a beautiful and killer goal for France in their recent Euro qualifier against the Ukraine.

He has in fact scored in each of his last three appearances after his recent reconciliation with Domenech and the French national team. His performances for the national team and indeed for Bolton have oozed maturity. He is 28 now after all.

We have been watching Nicolas Anelka closely during this past campaign and cannot fail but be impressed with his attitude and high quality of performances. Not to mention those two gloriously taken goals against the Arsenal at the Reebok.

Regular visitors to Arsenal Analysis will remember our “eulogy” of the player a few months ago and also in other postings such as “what does Arsenal need to do to challenge for next season?”

And now Manchester United, it has been reported, may want to sign him. We don’t blame them. He will be a great signing for them.

But even at this late hour why shouldn’t Arsene go for him? He certainly fits all the football requirements that Arsenal badly need to supplement their forward line.

In our earlier posting we laid out the attributes he will bring to the team:

- he is ideal as a forward to play with Henry or without him. We have argued before that Arsenal need two but may sign only one player!

- he is a very skilful player who scores goals for fun but can keep the ball and bring players into the game. Look how well he is playing for those average players at Bolton.

- he has played for Arsenal before and knows the way Wenger wants his forwards to play

- he knows the English Premier League well and therefore does not require any adjustment time as a new raw Wenger recruit would otherwise need.

- at only 28 years old he now has a blend of relative youthfulness along with maturity and experience that is sorely missing from an experience depleted squad.

His attitude and maturity have been evident on the football pitch both for Bolton and for the France national team. He has received no yellow or red cards.

- he is not likely to cost silly money and anything under 8 m will be considered value for money.

What a tremendous addition to the scoring capability of Arsenal he will be. He has scored 11 goals for Bolton this past season out of 35 appearances with 5 assists even. Compare that to the 17 he scored (out of 35) during his last season at Arsenal during the 1998-1999 season.

And for the goals scored this season he was playing the lonesome striker role; in an average, launch them long and high, Bolton side. Imagine how many goals he will score in an Arsenal side that creates scoring opportunities for fun.

Anelka himself, looking to play in the Champion’s League next year, has said: “there has been no contact with any other club for my signature as yet, none at all. But if there was then, of course, I couldn't say no to a club like Manchester United."

The good news is that apparently David Gill, the Man Utd Chief Executive, confirmed to Bolton chairman Phil Gartside that they have no interest in Anelka.

Wenger himself admitted that he considered signing him last season but obviously thought otherwise.

It’s about time he reconsidered. And fast.

Henry for Barcelona

There is a lot of gossip appearing in the English press in the last few days about Henry’s agent Jerome Anderson already in talks with Barca officials!

There are also the usual Barcelona induced Spanish press gossipers who at the end of each season begin the usual ritual of publishing stories about Henry leaving Arsenal.

This is also spuriously linked to a few words that Henry himself has said about not being happy with the way things have turned out at Arsenal this season.

Leaving aside the fact that all concerned with Arsenal should indeed be unhappy with the season just ended there are not in our opinion strong football, financial or personal reasons at the moment to justify Henry’s departure from Arsenal.

Football reasons

A fit Henry is not for sale full stop. But clearly Henry has not been at his usual scintillating best during last season. The stats on the player would obviously not make a pretty reading.

This has been put down to injury and fatigue. This may be so; we are not in a position to know. Maybe Wenger and his medical team are also not in a position to know either.

There must be some niggling thoughts at the back of Wenger’s mind that may be Henry is beginning to lose his pace due to age and not because of injury. He is after all entering that stage in his career at 29 where this indeed may begin to show.

And the fact is that unless Henry gets totally fit again no one will know. Totally fit in our mind means doing it on the centre stage in a competitive match. Not at the London Colney play house nor indeed at the Amsterdam Tournament or the Emirates Cup during the pre season.

So it would indeed be very premature for Wenger to let Henry go at this juncture. No one can tell whether Henry is past it yet. So if Wenger is serious about challenging for the title next season he needs to keep Henry at the club and hope that Henry will be at his top form.

Arsenal Analysis has advocated that Arsenal need to recruit another striker in order to supplement the forward line and provide cover. Something that was evidently missing this season. What does Arsenal need to do to challenge for next season? So you wouldn’t let a 25 goal a season man go just like that whatever money they are offering you.

If indeed Henry is not up to it then the best time to cut your losses and sell will be in the January transfer window when by then Henry’s fitness will be more evident and the team’s capabilities in terms of winning something major more apparent. And the public outcry probably a little less vociferous.

Wenger was faced with this type of decision before! He could have got a vastly superior purse for Vieira but he held on for another season (incorrectly so, as Vieira was indeed not performing at his high best but that is another story).

There is another football reason for keeping Henry.

The effect on player’s morale would be even more devastating than when Vieira departed. Judging by what happened when Vieira left then you can kiss the title goodbye if this happens.

Especially if there is no effective replacement with a big name signing coming in. Like Eto’o for instance. And the chances of this happening are not that great.

And if indeed it does happen there is the now almost mandatory six to twelve months adjustment to English football period to consider. Wenger knows this and that is why in our opinion he will not want to let Henry go, for now.

Financial Reasons

On the face of it there is a strong case for purely financial reasons to sell Henry on. The club will receive a substantial fee in the region of 20m plus save his salaries for the next four years totaling another 25m. That’s a huge sum of money to waive goodbye to!

However if, say, Henry were to be sold the year after, most of the salaries will not go away nor indeed a large part of the transfer fee. In other words the risks in terms of forgone financial benefits could be manageable compared to the possible upside of winning trophies next year and the commercial benefits that will ensue.

Personal Reasons

We have left this factor last because it is indeed the most important. If Henry wants out then Wenger will have his work cut out to convince him otherwise. But Henry has won almost everything there is to win in football apart the Champions League.

He has won the World Cup (played in two finals), the European Championship and several League championships in the toughest league in the world. Does he honestly believe that by moving to Barcelona he will win the Champion’s League? The Barcelona that were knocked out by Liverpool?

And then there is his personal situation. His wife is English and they have a young daughter. Why move abroad and unsettle all that? Especially when the Arsenal youngsters are coming of age and on the brink of establishing Arsenal as one of the best teams in the world playing fantastic football!

Only last week Henry said:

“Since I started playing football there has been speculation about me going to a lot of clubs and that will never, ever stop.

But as I said, for now I am an Arsenal player, so there is nothing to add to it.”

Ed: the italics are our own!

England 1 Brazil 1: Much ado about nothing.

This famous thespian title describes perfectly, we feel, the on goings during this uneventful and mainly dull encounter between these two famous national teams.

It was after all a friendly game and this was the reason why the visitors played it like one. It was also an end of season encounter with the Brazilians next serious competition, the Copa America, another month away still.

England on the other hand had more at stake and took this game much more seriously. The European Championship qualifier away at Estonia on Wednesday predominantly on the coaches and players minds.

There was also “much ado about nothing” with regard to Beckham’s return to the fold which was hyped up as the return of a rejuvenated star who will lead England to qualification and beyond!

Well we are sorry but we just don’t see it. Yes his crossing is second to none and his capabilities from dead ball situations are well known. And it was his cross from a free kick that allowed Terry to head home.

But we all knew that his forte was this! He was after all displaying these skills in abundance for England prior to his axing by McClaren! The fact is that this is all that Beckham can do. He can’t go pass his man, he can’t tackle and is not very good at tracking back to defend.

His inclusion in the squad stinks of desperation by McClaren who we think is displaying signs of reaching the maximum of his capabilities as a coach (which are not of the type that will make your head dizzy if you happen to be afraid of heights).

“The press are on to me… Do I not like a repeat of the horror in Skopje…If we don’t get a result at lowly Estonia my head will go…Get Beckham in, at least this will quiet the press and the public….Estonia is no great shakes and if he delivers a winning cross or scores from a free kick then I gain some more time to think what to do next….”

If the inclusion of Lennon was not possible due to injury why not try Shaun Right Philips or even David Bentley who by all accounts excelled for the under 21s a few days before. Give youth a chance.

Beckham’s inclusion also stinks of press over hype who as always like to elevate players (and coaches) to the top layers of heaven and then bring them down to cruel earth. It sells papers after all. But it is shameful nevertheless.

Beckham’s contribution other than his crosses was to often abandon his position right of midfield and try and play a play makers role getting into Lampard’s way and jeopardizing the team’s balance in the process.

It also meant that England had no real width on the right.Just like Arsenal this season with its wide players coming more infield!(Arsene. Who to buy?) Beckham has of course realized that he can’t go past players any more that is why he drifts infield. It’s a shame that McClaren hasn’t!

Joe Cole’s inability to exploit the other wing meant that most of the play was compressed in the centre of midfield as both Lampard and Gerrard were reluctant to venture forward. The latter obviously following instructions to play an withdrawn, man to man, role on kaka; which he performed with excellence. But we ask you is this really Gerrard’s role in an England shirt?

England will surely beat Estonia and qualify from this weak group but its progress when the competition proper begins will continue to be hindered we feel by the choice of formation and the players within it.

The formation of course needs to be chosen taking into consideration the players capabilities. So since Roonie is indispensable then the formation up front has to be of the one one variety. That is Roonie playing off a striker, as he is at his most efficient at this position.

The midfield therefore needs to consist of four players and since balance is very important in a football team the right and left midfielders have to be natural wide men with pace to burn. Not Beckham or Lampard or Gerrard. Square pegs in round holes don’t go. And the national team’s performances have suffered greatly from this selection policy.

The center of midfield needs to have a holding defensive midfielder to give protection in front of the defence. Brazil had Gilberto Silva of Arsenal who excelled in that role, scoring an incorrectly disallowed goal in the process. Enter Hargreaves for England.

And this leaves a place for a creative midfielder who will play the play makers role, support the attack when needed and the defence when under pressure. A great all rounder. The box to box midfielder. Both Gerrard and Lampard can do it but not both together. Enter Gerrard.

This formation will leave out Beckham, Lampard and Carrick to form part of a very formidable bench. But hey the name of the game is to win isn’t it?