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Friday, March 29, 2019

What my 'computer' predicts for the top 4 places

By 1970's Gooner

We are due to return to the much awaited final run in for the Premier League with the title winner left to be decided, the three relegation places to be confirmed and of course the remaining third and fourth CL places hotly contested by four teams. 

Everyone including journalists are voicing and writing their opinion about who they think will finish in the 3rd and 4th places. But this is backed mainly by their intuition. They have not really sat down to put to paper their predictions nor have they really backed up these predictions with any structured justification.

Lets make it clear. The 'computer' I refer to in the title of this post is my personal thinking as to the likely outcomes of the games involving those chasing a top four placing but structured to follow some guidelines.

I have made therefore some, what I consider, realistic guiding assumptions regarding the outcome of each team's remaining games. 

These are as follows:

- Any games against the top two will be lost.

This affects Spurs the hardest as they have to play both Liverpool and Man City away. Also Man Utd play at home to Man City and Chelsea play at Liverpool.

- Any games between the current 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th teams will be drawn.

This only affects Chelsea and Man Utd who play each other 
at Utd.

- All end of season fixtures are expected to be won by the four 
competitors as I expect all opponents will be on the beach by 
then, with relegation already decided and other safe teams 
indifferent.


Spurs

Spurs apart, from playing the top two away from home, have 

probably the easiest run in with 5 of their other 6 games being 
at home against opponents they are very capable of beating. 
These include Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, Brighton, 
West Ham and Everton with only indifferent Bournemouth 
away

Predictions :

1.Liverpool (A)          0
2.Crystal Palace (H)  3
3.Huddersfield (H)    3
4.Man City (A)          0
5.Brighton (H)           3
6.West Ham (H)        3
7.Bournemouth (A)   3
8.Everton (H)             3

Total                        18
Current points        61
Final points             79


Man Utd

I expect Man Utd to pick up a point from its two home fixtures 
against Man City and Chelsea. 

They have a Wolves game away just five days before Wolves play 
their FA Cup semifinal. I expect Wolves will not have their full 
wits for this fixture and Utd will win it.  

Utd play against West Ham at home after their first CL game 
against Barcelona and I expect them to win this game as 
I consider West Ham will be indifferent. However Utd play 
Everton away after their 2nd CL leg against Barcelona. 

I expect them to draw this fixture due to tiredness 
and disappointment from getting knocked out of the competition.

Predictions:

Watford (H)       3
Wolves (A)         3
West Ham (H)   3
Everton (A)        1
Man City (H)     0
Chelsea (H)        1
Huddsfield (A)   3
Cardiff (H)         3

Total                    17
Current points   58
Final points        75


Chelsea

Apart from having to play Liverpool and Man Utd away, Chelsea 
have a very easy and winnable fixture list with 4 of the remaining 
6 fixtures at home ( Brighton, West Ham, Burnley and Watford) 
and away at Cardiff and Leicester (last game). 

However they go into the remaining fixtures 3 points away from 
4th spot leaving them with a lot to catch up.

Predictions:

Cardiff (A)       3
Brighton (H)    3
West Ham (H) 3
Liverpool (A)  0
Burnley (H)     3
Man Utd (A)   1
Watford (H)    3
Leicester (A)   3

Total                  19
Current points  57
Final points       76


Arsenal

Arsenal as you may know do not have to play any of the other top 
five clubs around them. But 5 of their 8 games are away, which is 
worrying as our away form, although better than last season, 
is not ideal. 

I would consider that the Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brighton 
home games are very winnable. 

However, and to take into account that our away form is not 
great, I have not allowed an away win apart from the last 
game of the season at Burnley where I would expect that 
they will be safe by then (I expect that the current 
bottom 3, Cardiff, Huddersfield and Fulham will 
be relegated before the last game).

I have however taken into account our recent upturn in form 
which would allow us to at least draw the Everton, Watford, 
Wolves and Leicester away games. The Watford game in 
particular will be played a few days after our tough away 
game at Napoli.

However if we can master wins in some of those away games 
then I predict we will be home and dry. 

And of course momentum will be key. If we beat Newcastle 
and then carry this form in the next game, which is away 
at Everton, then the route to finishing in the top four will be wide 
open.


Predictions:                                   
                                                     
Newcastle (H)         3                  
Everton (A)            1                    
Watford (A)           1
Crystal Palace(H)  3
Wolves (A)             1
Leicester (A)          1
Brighton (H)          3
Burnley (A)            3

Total                      16
Current points      60
Final points           76



So the final standings are as follows:

Spurs      79points    3rd
Arsenal   76 points   4th           
Chelsea   76 points   4th
Man Utd 75 points   6th

Arsenal and Chelsea look like ending up with the same number 
of points and the final placings will be decided on goal difference. 
Currently Arsenal are ahead with 24 difference and Chelsea 
7 behind with 17. This factor may indeed prove decisive.

Unfortunately Spurs end up 3rd. 

I hope I am wrong and we finish above them.

















  















14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Arsenal will win most of your draws my brother... you are a joke

Anonymous said...

Its very difficult to predict what each team will do in the run in. But at least you provide a set of assumptions which may well turn out to be true. What does come out clearly from this set of predictions is that if Arsenal improve just a little their away form then even 3rd place can be achievable.

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